Why LeBron Will Break the All-Time Scoring Record

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As you may have heard, LeBron recently passed Moses Malone for eighth on the all-time scoring list. This year he’s continued to show why he’s far from reaching a halt on climbing the scoring ladder.

That leads us to the question everyone really want to know the answer to. How much higher can he climb on this list and more specifically: will he ever reach the number one spot?

Well the good news for all you LeBron/Cavs fans is that I believe that he can and will top the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record of 38,387 points. The not-as-good news is that I’m just some kid who likes writing about the NBA, so my opinion obviously doesn’t mean it’s written in stone to happen.

But luckily for you, this NBA fan is an even bigger fan of stats and decided to crunch some numbers. So let’s take a look at them and see what kind of chances LeBron has at becoming the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. To make this a little easier, we’ll just look at LeBron’s point total entering this season, which was 26,833 career points, instead of where he stands to the date.

Throughout his career he has averaged 27.1 points per game. His scoring has been “down” the last two years to a lowly 25.3 points per game. Yes, that was sarcasm.

His whole career he has put up arguably the most consistent stat line in NBA history. I know I said we wouldn’t include this season’s scoring but this is too relevant of a fact to leave out. After averaging 25.3 points the last two seasons, he’s now averaging that exact same amount this season as of today (December 24). His proven consistency is one of the biggest reasons why I think he will break Kareem’s scoring record.

Not including this season, LeBron has played 13 seasons in the league. It’s highly expected that he will play into his 20th season and possibly beyond. Even LeBron himself has expressed the desire to play another 10 years to be able to play with or against his son.

Could LeBron really play 23 years in the league? Well, it seems pretty fitting to his jersey number for it to happen, right? Based on the fact that he would begin that season at 40 years old and finish at 41, the odds aren’t entirely against him. But back to the main topic.

If he were to score his career average of points per season (2,064) he would break Kareem’s record in less than six years. But that’s much less likely for him to keep up than his new norm for scoring is (1,832). If he were to score his last two season’s average of points per season, it would take him a bit longer but still less than seven years.

It’s hard to image a guy scoring 25 points per game in his 20th season but if anyone can do it, it’s LeBron. Playing an average of 76 games per year throughout his career and lacking any major injury to date plays even more into the likelihood that he can sustain these numbers.

And just like he’s alluded to playing up to another 10 years he’s done more than just allude to the player he chasing, Michael Jordan. Jordan maintained an averaged of 20 points per game in his last season at 39 years old.

Even though Jordan spent ages 35-37 retired, age 38 was his first season ever since an early injured second year that he averaged under 25 points per game. Similarly, LeBron has not dipped under the 25 per game mark since his rookie season. If he were to keep this up the way MJ did until he turns 38, which would be his 20th season, he will have himself the all-time scoring record. If he were to play beyond that season as he’s alluded to, he would ultimately shatter the record.

He has the a huge advantage over MJ to break records for totals. LeBron never spent a day in college while Jordan spent 3 years there and Jordan retired for four and a half years before his final retirement.

Because of LeBron’s early start in the NBA, his endurance, and consistency, I think he will be well on his way to the scoring record.

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