Our NFL Analyst Wonder comments on the 2017 NFL Draft. We’ll get to TE tomorrow.
For newcomers, Wonder has passed verification. When we went back and checked out how his R1 picks did vs the NFL GMs, he beat them. He is slightly better on the positive evaluations but where Wonder shines is on the busts. Wonder distinguishes himself on the guys he does not like. When was the last time the Draft analyst you followed get verified for what he said in past Drafts? They don’t verify. We do. Our point is that Wonder’s analysis is value-added. He does not get it all right. Wonder did not like OBJ at 11th overall because of his size (He had him ranked 18th). He is not perfect. But he does better than the GMs overall, so you can trust he has more than a clue. Plus, his evals are brutal and frank. Read what he says about Mahomes. Read what he thinks about the idea of drafting anyone this year at RB in Round 1. You may not agree with him, but he does not pull punches and he calls it like he sees it. That is worth a lot when other guys who make mocks hedge and become part of the soup. They think they are distinguishing themselves by only having a guy rated 27th instead of 24th and call that “not liking him as much.” When Wonder doesn’t agree, he is a Round or two lower. Without further ado..
Very thin OL draft.
Cam Robinson is the only player who stands out. Not worth a top 10, but 10-20 value in R1. He is the only OLman worth a R1 pick. Big, strong, NFL body, pulls well, can hold his position at Tackle. Does not have elite athleticism, but has great length in his arms, can mix it up and fight. Has upside, but not a Top 5 guy. He is not a gin pick. He still needs work.
Forrest Lamp is a guy I really like. Tough road grader, Shaun O’Hara type of player. Good value in R2 but unfortunately he will be gone before then.
Nate Theaker is a value guy. Late R4, or R5. He may slip to R6. Big guy, country strong, tough. Theaker is a sleeper, a solid Guard on Day 3, but becomes a starter in the NFL. That is where you make your money in the NFL. Tough, moves well. Side to side movement, fluid hips for a big guy, runs ok too. He can play in a phone booth (Guard).
Ryan Ramczyk. I would not take him at 23 in R1. He will be overdrafted. I do not reach for this guy. SUMMARY FOR GIANTS FANS: Get Theaker on Day 3 and skip the rest because they will be overdrafted.
There are NONE that are worth taking in Round 1. NONE. Zero. We will tell you who the best are, but none are worth a R1 pick. There is no Tony Dorsett, No Todd Gurley (less knee getting ripped up… Wonder loved Gurley in his freshman year at Georgia, but when he tore his ACL he was dropped out of Round 1 on his eval).
Leonard Fournette potentially is the best. Would have been better in 1972. Not great out of the backfield, does not explode out of the hole (like Ezekiel Elliott, Freeman McNeil or Curtis Martin). Fournette needs blocking, a la DAL OL. But most backs will do well behind them. Fournette has to go to the sidelines on 3rd and 7, so that is not an NFL RB in 2017 who is worthy of a R1 pick. Disappointed with vertical, which I use to indicate explosion. Tough but has had a few nagging injuries. The only team who might be worth it for them to take a guy like this is one where they have a good OL without a good RB, and you play in cold weather. If NE was picking at 32, would be good. Fournette will not last until 32, but you get the idea. Also OAK would be a fit. OAK has QB, WR, OL, and a 3rd down back, so that is a fit.
Joe Mixon is the best RB in the Draft. Problem is he punched a woman. Class act. Beyond extracurriculars, he can play football. Best all around versatile RB in 2017 Draft. Can he put it behind him and become a great NFL player? I don’t know. If he fell to R2 I would draft him. Not in R1. Better not to have that spotlight either on him. If everyone lays off him because of the extracurriculars, and he falls to the Giants in R2, I would take him. (We don’t expect that, but stranger things have happened.)
Alvin Kamara is interesting. Tweener, decent size, not super fast. Hits the hole, good vision to get thru the hole. Good hands, another Curtis Martin. Best football is coming. R2.
TJ Logan. Sleeper on Day 3. Like Darren Sproles, fast devil. Can do a lot of things, slot, multipurpose. Can do almost anything for you, can even split him wide, run him on screens and pitches. Round 4 yes, certainly R5. If my team’s eval is good and you are in love with him, Round 4 yes. Can be a gamechanger. Great value.
Christian McCaffrey. Yes, he can do everything, yes Julian Edelman-like, quicker than he is fast. Round 2 for sure. Great Receiver. He is too small for Round 1. He needs to be in the right Offensive system. I am happy with Perkins out of UCLA from R5. The Giants do not need McCaffrey because Perkins can do enough of those things. The Patriots would do very well with this guy because of fit. He will go in R1 but not for me, not a 2017 NFL Round 1 RB. (Hardly ever any R1 RB. Any team that drafts a RB in R1 must have a great OL to leverage that player.)
There is not a great WR this year, but a lot of very good ones. I am biased to Mike Williams and John Ross. A lot of others like Corey Davis, but less interested in Davis in R1.
John Ross is faster than The Flash. Faster than DeSean Jackson. Football speed, might end up being the most dangerous weapon in the Draft. But the caveat once again is fit, as a team needs to utilize him properly. Has everything except size. Frankly he is like Odell Beckham. Could become an absolute weapon that requires so much of the defense’s attention. How do you guard him? He has that kind of potential.
Mike Williams is a vacuum cleaner. You throw him the ball and he catches it. It does not matter where you throw the ball.. he will go get it. Big. Like all Clemson guys he does not run a great route. But he has a HUGE radius, like Brandon Marshall. Does not have burner speed, but he has Jerry Rice speed, elusive, you won’t catch him if he gets behind you. He is tough to bring down. Where is he worth in R1? Not sure who is better, Williams or Ross. Depends on system. Ross may end up being the human highlight reel.
Curtis Samuel. Cheaper version of John Ross. Ohio State, burner, not as fast as Ross. But how do you cover him in the slot? His quickness and acceleration is ridiculous. The only negative is that he does not snatch the ball with his hands, preferring to pull it into his body. That can be coached and improved. Can do everything with Samuel, can put him in the backfield, so versatile in your offense. Wildcat. Anything you can dream up. The Patriots would give their left testicle to get him in R2. Makes Julian Edelman look like a slow guy who has trouble getting out of his breaks. Just a blazer.
Zay Jones. Untapped potential. Will be an excellent professional football player. R2 value. Like a John Taylor or John Stallworth. Tall, will go over the middle, will help you for years to come. Does everything well. The only thing that keeps him from R1 is lack of blazing speed. He is fast, but not blazing R1 fast.
Carlos Henderson. Cheap version of OBJ. Not as fast. R3 talent. Interesting. Will make it in the pros. Will be more successful than some of the highly rated guys.
Chris Godwin. All this guy does is make football plays. He played unbelievably in the Rose Bowl. Against solid competition. Does he get taken in R4? If so, unbelievable value. Good pro. Will be better in the pros than in college. Will work. Catches the ball, gets open, gets his feet down. Runs a pretty good route tree, smart. Quick out of the blocks. Good size. If you give me a choice between Corey Davis in R1 and Chris Godwin in R4, I take Godwin 100 out of 100 times. So much more value and I can do something else with my R1 pick.
Deshaun Watson. He is the only QB worth a R1 grade. Decent arm strength, not great arm strength. Winner. Intangibles. Competitor. Good anticipation. Smart. Knows what he is doing. I do not want to rush him to start. I would prefer not to start him in Year 1. If you give this guy the right coaching and time, he may turn out to be a fantastic QB. Leader, great for your organization. Better version of Russell Wilson, if given the chance. Not running ability of Wilson but great athlete.
Josh Dobbs. (pictured) Dobbs and Webb are my Group 2 players below the radar. Just a guy who may not make it but he may be a real find. This guy is a tough and smart guy. He needs to hold onto the ball better, but he can learn that. Great athleticism. Starter for 3 years in college. Has the height and can add some weight. Steal at end of R2 or early R3. I am not convinced that he can’t be the best QB of this draft. Big arm. Great threat. Can run the ball. Team leader. Reads the field, reacts, does well. Needs better pocket presence to protect the football, but that will come in time. I have him rated higher than Teddy Bridgewater. So he is much better. If the Giants could get him in R2, he is my QB of the future. There is always bust potential with these guys- will they adapt to the pro game etc? But I think he makes it. First Round talent and ability. NFL.com has him as the 9th rated QB in this draft but that does not take into account his upside. BIG UPSIDE.
Davis Webb is another QB I really like for value. Unpolished. Off the field issues. Problems, spread offense. BIG. Has an arm. Has an arm and a half. Can he mature? I do not know. I am certainly not wasting a R2 or R3 pick on this lottery ticket. Not a winning record. Too much trouble to draft early. But Day 3 is intriguing. The ball flies off his hands. Bazooka. Late Round 4 or Round 5. Groom him to be a professional QB.
Patrick Mahomes does nothing for me. I do not like the way the ball comes out of his hands. Media fabrication, if you want to know the truth. The emperor has no clothes. Media darling and I do not see it. I would not take him until R6 or R7 and he is going to go in Round 1. Whoever the GM is who takes him in Round 1 should be fired the next day. (Reminder, Wonder said the same thing about Christian Ponder, and how did that work out???!!!) I do not like his footwork, I don’t like his tape, Texas Tech spread Offense. How do I take someone who I do not like how he throws the football?? How do I develop that? So that he becomes mediocre? He will not be a great QB. Dobbs and Webb have potential, where Mahomes does not. I will be shocked if Pat Mahomes becomes a good NFL QB.
Mitchell Trubisky. Good. But not great. I do not like his release. He does not have exceptional arm strength. Acceptable but not excellent. Round 2 yes. Round 1 no. Top of the Draft? Hell no! Insane.
Teams are desperate. They keep overreaching for this position. Time and again.