Pirates approach at the plate needs to change

The Pittsburgh Pirates bats have been up and down throughout the course of the first month of the 2018 season.

With a young team hot and cold streaks are going to happen and that has reflected in their win-loss record so far this season.

But while hot streaks tend to come and go, there are a few trends, some disturbing that show that this offense is trending in a very bad direction.

BB’s-K’s

The Bucs led all of baseball in practically every offensive category through 15 games, but a good sign is that they were drawing a lot of walks.

The Pirates walked 55 times in their first 15 games, which amounted to a 9.3 percent walk rate.

That’s not outstanding by any stretch of the imagination, but it was above the league average during that span.

In the 16 games that followed, the Bucs have drawn just 50 walks and have a walk rate of 8.3 percent, which is below the league average.

That’s not a huge drop off, but it’s a sign they are going in the wrong direction.

Early on in the season the Pirates hitters seemed to be working pitchers more, getting into deeper counts and getting better pitches to hit.

For guys struggling, seeing pitches and drawing walks is a big part of getting on base and helping the team win.

In the last 16 games, Adam Frazier and Jordy Mercer have drawn just one walk each. Josh Bell, just three after drawing nine free passes the first 15 games.

In addition to the walk rate declining, the strikeouts are increasing, which isn’t a good sign.

The first 15 games the Bucs had a 17.3 percent K rate, which was the second lowest in all of baseball.

The last 16 games that number has spiked to 22.6 percent, which is the 11^th highest in baseball.

Similar to not working pitchers and drawing walks, the Bucs hitters are doing a lot more chasing out of the zone and the strikeouts are piling up.

In the past 16 games, among the Pirates regulars, only Corey Dickerson and Francisco Cervelli haven’t racked up double digit strikeouts.

Mercer has fanned a team-leading 15 times in that span. Starling Marte has been punched out 13 times, while Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran and Bell have all fanned 12 times. Frazier, despite not playing every day has stuck out 11 times in this recent stretch.

Where’s the solid contact?

Putting the bat on the ball is one thing and that has been a bit of a struggle of late.

Making good contact has been another issue altogether and that is the most concerning thing about this recent 16-game stretch.

Through the first 15 games the Pirates hit .271 (third in MLB) / .343 (fourth) / .452 (second). The last 16 games, those numbers have dropped to .243 (18^th) / .309 (23^rd) / .374 (24^th).

The biggest reason for that is the Pirates aren’t squaring up pitches.

In terms of soft contact rate, the Pirates went from a 17.3 percent rate, which was the seventh lowest number in baseball to 24 percent, which is the worst mark of all 30 major league teams.

In the same stretch the hard contact rate has dropped from 34.2 percent to 22.4 percent, which is also the worst mark in the majors.

For example, Sean Rodriguez (40 percent), Polanco (32.7), Dickerson (26.0) and Bell (25.5) all have soft contact rates over 25 percent the past 16 games.

In the other context, Marte (15.9 percent), Frazier (16.2), Mercer (18.2), Rodriguez (20.0) and Bell (23.4) all rank among the top 30 in baseball in terms of the lowest hard contact rates in that same span.

Quite simply the problem is when the Pirates are making contact, they aren’t making good contact and it is leading to an offense trending in the wrong direction.

Until they start having better at bats as a team, start working pitchers and start hitting the ball hard, expect the Pirates offense to have plenty of long slumps.