The final Indians positional minor league top ten of 2018 may be the most impressive of all as we take a look at the Tribe’s right handed starting pitchers. While quite a few of the Indians top pitchers are left handers, this list includes the Indians #1 prospect who is also one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. It also has more players with realistic Major League aspirations than any other list.
The list is vastly different from last year’s as Shane Bieber (4) has made it to the Majors, Julian Merryweather (2), Grant Hockin (7) and Brock Hartson (9) have had injuries push them back while Luis Araujo (8) and Micah Miniard (10) have been converted to relief. That leaves just four from 2017, so let’s get to know the new guys.
10. Matt Esparza – Age: 23 – 2017 RHSP Rank: 5
2015 Draft, Round 14
A+ Lynchburg
Esparza has lost some ground in the rankings due to an injury laden 2018, but is still young enough to have back end MLB potential. He doesn’t have much for velocity, but has managed to use a decent breaking ball and good command to create solid strike out numbers. After spending most of 2017 with Akron, it’s possible he could rejoin the rotation as soon as he’s 100% again.
9. Ignacio Feliz – Age: 18 – Unranked in 2017
2016 International Free Agent
AZL Indians 1
The ace of the Arizona League Indians 2 team (he was transferred to Indians 1 after Yeffersson Yannuzzi was promoted), Felix has completely transformed himself this year after a rough first season in the Dominican (2017). While he has had trouble with control, he has increased his strike outs, limited his walks and simply been dominant overall this season. Considering that his team is one of the worst defensively in the league, the fact that Feliz has been able to put up such impressive numbers is even more incredible. He hasn’t pitched enough to project, but he has a solid start to his minor league career.
8. Carlos Vargas – Age: 18 – Unranked in 2017
2017 International Free Agent
AZL Indians 2
Vargas is an odd pick for the Indians eighth best right handed starter (2018 draft pick Lenny Torres, the full list of pitchers who fell off the list due to recent injuries and Gregori Vasquez are a few that went overlooked to include him), but he was an odd pick for the Indians to sign in the first place. Already 18 by the time he signed, Vargas was taken for his high fastball velocity and has had some early success in his minor league career, striking out more than 10 per nine innings despite skipping the Dominican Summer League entirely. He has some control issues, but the way he misses bats helps him limit the damage from walks. Considering this is his first year in the pros, there are far more positives than negatives.
7. Alex Royalty – Age: 21 – Unranked in 2017
Drafted 2018, Round 8
SS Mahoning Valley
Another pick based purely on potential, Royalty has had a great start to his career between Arizona and Mahoning Valley, striking out nearly 12 batters per nine and walking fewer than two. He throws hard, has multiple plus pitches and looked really dynamic the few times I was lucky enough to see him pitch in the AZL. While not considered as highly as some of the Indians earlier picks this year, Nick Sandlin and Adam Scott are expected to be used purely in relief, making Royalty the top starting prospect of the 2018 draft so far (Ethan Hankins is yet to pitch and Lenny Torres started late.).
6. Zach Plesac – Age: 23 – Unranked in 2017
Drafted 2016, Round 12
A+ Lynchburg
Originally considered a throwaway pick on a man with a famous uncle, Plesac has yet to really struggle as he nears 200 innings in the minors. He played some of the best baseball of his young career during a short stint in Akron this year, but is back with Lynchburg for now. He should be in Akron for the full season next year. I still don’t see a Major League starter in Plesac, but he definitely has a AAA floor with potential for more.
5. Aaron Civale – Age: 23 – 2017 RHSP Rank: 3
Drafted 2016, Round 3
AA Akron
One of the most successful of the Indians recent group of low ceiling, high floor college picks (Bieber is another), Civale has already reached AA in his third season. While he’s had great success on his way up, the risk in picking low risk players is that they have very little chance of becoming a top of the rotation starter. Civale still has a few years to develop into a Major League pitcher, but is probably going to be limited to back end of the rotation status. Of course, that’s something worthwhile by itself, but for the Indians, that probably isn’t good enough to break into a rotation that already has Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger all under team control through at least 2020.
4. Luis Oviedo – Age: 19 – Unranked in 2017
2015 International Free Agent
SS Mahoning Valley
Oviedo showed great potential last year, but it wasn’t until 2018 that his overall numbers began to reflect that. While extremes in BABIP have lead to completely diametric ERAs, Oviedo’s important rate states have remained consistent since his DSL days and should continue to do so based on his repertoire. I’ve been saying it for awhile, but if the Indians don’t give it to a part time MLB arm (particularly Adam Plutko), Oviedo should win the Bob Feller award for minor league pitcher of the year for 2018.
3. Eli Morgan – Age: 22 – Unranked in 2017
Drafted 2017, Round 8
A+ Lynchburg
Morgan was good last year, but there is only so much you can prove in short season. He has been astounding this year, moving from Lake County to Lynchburg in just his second pro season. His K-rate above 11.0, walk rate below 2.0 and an ERA below 3.00 in high A all place Morgan among the elite Indians starters. Based purely on potential, Morgan could be #2 on this list, but the other pitcher ahead of him is much closer to reaching the Major Leagues.
2. Shao-Ching Chiang – Age: 24 – 2017 RHSP Rank: 6
2011 International Free Agent
AAA Columbus
When he was promoted earlier this season, Chiang became the only true pitching prospect in the Columbus rotation. While he has struggled some since reaching AAA, particularly with the long ball, he still should be considered the definitive high floor, low ceiling pitcher in the Indians system. A ground ball specialist, Chiang almost never walks a batter, but also rarely strikes anyone out. With the amount of truly high caliber pitchers both in the Indians rotation currently and in the upper minors, it is unlikely Chiang will break into the rotation, but he could certainly become a Dan Otero style reliever and use that as his route to the big leagues. This is is 7th season, however, so he would have to be added to the 40 man roster or risk being lost to the rule 5 draft or free agency this fall.
1. Triston McKenzie – Age: 20 – 2017 RHSP Rank: 1
Drafted 2015, Round 1
AA Akron
A mid-90’s fast ball with nearly perfect command set off by a hard slider and nice change up have lead McKenzie to become not only the Indians top prospect, but a consensus top 40 prospect in all of baseball. He missed the beginning of the season due to injury, but has already got back to normal in Akron. All the pitchers on this list could potentially make the Majors as a starter, but realistically, McKenzie is the only ace of the bunch. Thanks to his late start this year, he will likely start 2019 in AAA rather than the Majors, but he should definitely be in the big leagues by 2020.
This appears to be the plan for the Tribe at the moment, but one alternative could be to use McKenzie in relief in the big leagues before transitioning him back to the rotation. Given his three plus pitches, he could be an incredible reliever, especially in situations where you need a strike out. Keeping this in mind, he could potentially be called up as early as this September, although given the Indians recent history of preferring veterans to rookies and conserving service time at an extreme level, this is doubtful.
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