#BWinsDraft: Mocking the Mocks by @Bfloblog

As I watched my Twitter feed become filled over the last few weeks with “check out my latest Mock Draft version 8.0” my head was ready to explode. So I decided I would test what, exactly, we were getting with these mock drafts.

But first, a disclaimer: I completely understand the fun the writers have in crafting their mock drafts. As a former writer myself, I see a ton of value in doing a mock. You are forced to research team needs. You are forced to research prospects. If you care about your craft, you are devouring every piece of media you can find about these 21-year-old kids who are about to be drafted. And after you are done? You’re goddamn right that you feel like an expert, and I guarantee that every single person who I tracked in my Mocking of the Mocks knows far more about the draft than I do. This is not even open for debate.

In fact, if this is something you are particularly passionate about, you are doing all this anyway so you may as well write a mock draft, right? I am not trying to poke fun at the effort and time these writers invested in what they did, and I know their intentions were pure. Except, perhaps, for those writers who hide behind a paywall. I could not track ESPN’s results because I am not an insider, but if someone is and wants to cut and paste that and send it my way I am all in.

In short, I get the value of the mock draft as a reader. I get to learn about the prospects, and the team needs, and why a player may or may not be a good fit for some team. In my case, I get to learn where they went to college because as a casual observer of college football I rely on the experts to tell me more.

Still, all week long I questioned the value of what I was reading. Or, in many cases, not reading. Just how good are these experts? Are there actually national experts out there who have genuine “insider” knowledge? I figured there was only one way to find out, so I put a spreadsheet together with a dozen football writers to track their results. I had no rhyme or reason as to whom I chose; I just hit the big websites and found mock drafts, then threw in a few local guys. My guinea pigs were:

Peter Schrager (FOX Sports)

The Sporting News (no writer identified)

Chad Reuter (NFLN)

Daniel Jeremiah (NFLN)

Mike Mayock (NFLN)

Don Banks (SI)

Chris Burke (SI)

Doug Farrar (SI)

Greg Bedard (SI)

Jay Skurski (Buffalo News)

Joe Buscaglia (WKBW TV)

Sal Capaccio (WGR Radio)

Next, I had to determine how to score this little contest. There are so many variables that weigh in to a draft that it is hard to criticize anyone. If one team moves early on a guy (looking in your direction, Chargers), it kind of blows up your board. But if experts are indeed wired in to at least the vibe, if not insider information, shouldn’t they at least have an inkling? And if some guy has a picture pop up on his Twitter account of him smoking weed, should you care? Well, some teams do, apparently, and that blows up your predictions. But being an expert who makes money to do this is a cruel mistress, so I decided on the following hockey-based system (and we can discuss the inefficacy of the current NHL point system later, just back off, OK)

Win: Nailed it. Right guy to the right team in the right round is a “win.” Two points

OT Loss: Right guy in the right slot, but wrong team. I also awarded this on the Seattle pick. One point.

Loss: Self explanatory. You whiffed. No points. And no one is trying to tank their mock so don’t start with me about how this is better their franchise or #brand

Important to note, I think, is that every writer was handed four points with the first two draft picks. All but Doug Farrar chose to take the points. He switched the order up, so it goes to show that there is a contrarian in every publication. Good job, Councilperson #Jamm.

(Rich’s note – if you want to see the glory of this chart pick by pick – and not just the results – click here. My MAN’S NOT PLAYING)

So without further ado, here is the least significant thing you are likely to read this week unless you follow Buzzfeed.

Mayock leading the way is not surprising to me. He is as wired-in as anyone can be in the national football scene, and I can guarantee he gets access to far more people in front offices than anyone in the country. Even Peter King. BECAUSE THE NFL SAYS SO.

It was interesting to note that only Skurski nailed the Bills pick. I have a million thoughts here as to how he knew and the “flagship station” did not. I understand teams don’t give this information away in this day and age, but if you cover the team, and are an “expert,” you should have a decent shot at this. Doesn’t always happen though…I get it.

Burke…two correct picks when you were handed two correct picks. Tough night.

Overall, hard to be critical but it’s hard to accept all the “who saw ‘X’ happening”as well.  I get Tunsil, but Bosa? Shouldn’t someone have known? What this little experiment shows is that teams do not leak anything anymore, and therefore there are exactly zero draft insiders. So pay for a mock draft at your own risk.

Instead, take them for what they are worth. A fun exercise and a tool meant to educate the reader by people who really care about this stuff. Lord knows I don’t.