5 Bills to Decide 2016 by @Mack10zie

5 Bills to Decide 2016 by @Mack10zie

As the Bills season gets ready to kick off, it’s time to start to look at the players who will likely define which direction the season goes.

1. Tyrod Taylor – I think it’s safe to say that Tyrod exceeded everyone’s expectations last year.  In 14 games, he threw for over 3000 yards and had a TD:INT ratio of 3.5:1.  Let’s also not forget that the team was 8-6 with him as the starter.  If he starts all 16, maybe that’s 10-6?  Beyond the Bills success on the field, there is obviously the contract situation here.  The sides are talking, but the way the year goes could greatly impact his $.  Finally, for the first 4 weeks, he is the best starting QB in the AFC East.  If Tyrod can stay healthy, and repeat his 2015 season, the playoffs aren’t unrealistic.

2. Shady McCoy – Much like Tyrod, McCoy is on this list due to his health.  He was only able to play in 12 games last year.  He projected to 1200 yards rushing had he been able to play all 16.  Additionally, Roman’s offense is built around leading the league in rushing every year.  We seem to have a decent stable of backups, but nobody can replace LeSean when he’s not in the lineup.

The offense clearly regressed and struggled when he did not play last season.  He is an explosive back that defenses must account for.  None of the other backs we have has shown that they can be a feature back in the NFL to date.  McCoy needs to also stay health to take some pressure of Taylor.  Taylor is at his best when the sticks are short and teams don’t know whether they will run or pass.

3. Jordan Mills – It may seem strange to some people to see this name here.  However, my reasoning is that for the first time in a while, I don’t see the Bills OL as being a weakness.  I feel they are at least average, if not above average in 4 of the 5 positions on the line.  To me, Mills is the biggest unknown here.  If you are going to have a run heavy offense, and keep Taylor and McCoy healthy for 16 games, you have to be able to dominate the line of scrimmage.  I think against most teams, the Bills OL has the potential to have an advantage, as long as Mills can carry his own weight.

4. Jerry Hughes – With Mario gone, Jerry is 100% the guy people have to account for in passing situations now.  Unfortunately, he had more 15 yard penalties (2 for unnecessary roughness, 1 facemask, 2 unsportsmanlike, 1 personal foul, and a roughing the passer) than he did sacks last season (5 sacks).  Obviously sacs dropped across the board, but Hughes had double-digit sacks in both 13 and 14.  His sack total was cut in half, and that was with teams having to account for Mario Williams being on the other side.  Hughes needs to not only reach double digit sacks again, but he needs to cut down on his untimely penalties.

5. Dan Carpenter – Look, I know fans will always say if they had only won that close game they would’ve been better, but the truth of the matter is most NFL games are decided by a FG or less and are close games.  Winning close games is what makes you a playoff team.  Carpenter’s FG % was a solid 85.2% last year.  The only concern is that his long was 52, but it’s tough to tell if that is more a product of Rex punting because he didn’t think teams could drive the length of the field on his D, or a lack of trust in Carpenter’s leg strength.

The bigger concern is the PAT.  While there were rules changes last year that obviously made PATs a more difficult conversion, Carpenter missed 6 of them.  He missed 6 33 yard kicks.  To put that in perspective for you, all NFL kickers missed a total of 13 PATs last season, and Carpenter was responsible for half of them.  The Bills are not a great team.  At their best, they’re only a pretty good team.  They cannot afford to give away points like this again.

You may be reading this and wondering why the defense is so underrepresented.  I would agree with you.  I think the DL is in pretty good shape, and I like the secondary if everyone is healthy as well.  I have huge questions about the Bills LB core, but I honestly have no idea who the hell will be playing LB for the Bills this year that I couldn’t in good faith list one of those guys.  

Will Ragland or Shaq Lawson play?  Is IK going to start?  How is Manny Lawson health wise?  There are lots of questions and I do think LB is the biggest question for Buffalo, I just have no idea which one…

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