The dust has finally settled for the 2017 season for the NFL. The Patriots are kings once again and it feels like it’s their world and the rest of the NFL is paying rent. You can hate the Pats all you want, but you should respect the hell out of their greatness. Brady/Belichick are the best QB/Coach combo in NFL history. I know a few talking heads in Buffalo (See: White, Jerome) have tried to diss the Patriot way as it being just Tom Brady and everything else is overrated. However, you should consider that those early titles NE won, A LOT had to do with the defense. Go ask HOF Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning about those defenses from 2001-2005. That organization is top notch and Tom Brady wasn’t the won who held the Falcons scoreless in the 4th quarter and made Big Ben look like another QB in the AFC Title game.
Anyways, those are my Pats takes, and now it’s time to talk Bills.
Ugh.
When you watch the playoffs, especially the final 4, it really snapshots how far the Bills are when it comes to the elite of the NFL. The Bills would get crushed by the Falcons or Pats. We can go over the coaching, which I will get into, but talent wise…ugh.
My 2 cents on McDermott…. The Bills, as the norm for my fandom, have left me feeling numb and ambivalent when it comes to hiring coaches. This time around, we got the ultra organized guy…last time we got the player’s coach…the one before we got the innovate new guy… It is Groundhog day. Yes, One Bills Drive is spilling out quotes from everyone around the league saying McDermott is awesome and an attention to detail type of person. Terry Pegula can’t shut up about how McDermott was a wrestling machine in Pennsylvania and is basically Brock Lesnar meets Kurt Angle. Players have talked about how McDermott’s discipline is exactly what this team needs which can be conceived as a shot at Rex Ryan. I would suggest for anyone to google what players said after Marrone left and when Rex was hired. The quotes tend to shit on the previous regime while putting over the new regime. I remember how players hated Marrone and BOOM, WE GOT A PLAYER’S COACH!!! HOORAY!! Players like Shady stuck up for Rex in December, but once he was canned, players like him decided it was time to back the new guy because that’s how it always goes.
Overall, when a new coach gets hired, we enter the honeymoon period when it comes to fans because it’s something new and exciting. Hope is all Bills fans have these days. I’m cautious when it comes to McDermott. No expectations really because I’ve been burned before when it comes to getting excited about a coach.
Now, let’s say I lose the regrettable memories of the last 17 years, how do I feel about McDermott? I don’t hate it. It seems fine on paper when you get a guy who’s had a top defense in this league and is from the Andy Reid coaching tree. I’m a little more pessimistic about his OC/DC as Leslie Frasier’s defenses haven’t exactly been that impressive and I don’t know much about an OC that hasn’t called plays, albeit, he’s from an impressive coaching tree. The Bills seem to have gone the veteran coaching route with their staff, which has gained a lot of high-fives from the media and the fan base. Of course, if they went with the youth/innovative staff, I’m sure those same people would be saying how “Retreads suck! Forward thinking guys like Nate Hackett rule!”
Again, coaching optimism always follows suit when the new guy comes in. However, even with the love of the new coach, when you look at this roster, it looks bad and kind of kills my optimism for McDermott in the short-term. We already know the Bills have like 27 Free agents and to be honest, I’m only interested in one of them (Gilmore, Stephon) while the rest I can live without. Bob Woods had a nice season, but I’ve been counting on losing him for the last year, so, I set myself up for him to take off. Lorenzo Alexander had a hell of a season, but you already have Shaq Lawson waiting in the wings and I’m not sure #57 can adjust to a new defensive scheme. Same goes with Zach Brown. Even if the Bills had a ton of cap room and they kind of do if they decline Tyrod’s deal (around 41-million), they could re-sign everyone and they would still kind of suck IMO.
Sorry, but this just isn’t a very good roster.
The right side of the OL sucks. Sammy Watkins is injury prone and we have zero other WRs to compliment him. If the Bills push Gilmore out, you are going to have Darby, who regressed last year, and Nickell Robey-Coleman as your #1 and #2 CB. Aaron Williams is trying to come back, but who knows how long he’ll last as he should probably just hang it up. And then we have Tyrod, who is a riddle trapped in an enigma for me. I know his success is going to be predicated around the team surrounding him. The team has to make him better, not the other way around. And right now, the team surrounding him kind of sucks. The Bills best attributes are probably the left side of the line, McCoy and the DL. Other than that, it looks bad. You got 2 completely new systems coming in and there’s sure to be growing pains, especially when you just look at the talent level.
[Rich/editor note – the terminology of the previous system, as a WCO staple will be fine; the plays when they switched to Lynn are actually quite similar to what Dennison and co will run because they learned in it the same place – Denver under Shanahan] [Joe’s note- Valid point. However, you may have a completely new WR core and new QB. So, that logic could be compromised. Also, after Rex vs Pettine turned out to NOT be the same, I’m cautious when it comes to saying things will be the same]I think the Bills kind of lucked into 7-9 last year by having to play just 4 teams who made the playoffs (Steelers/Raiders/Pats/Seahawks). They should have been 6-10 if Brady wasn’t suspended. The Bills played 7 teams (An 8-way tie for 20th fewest) who were over .500 and went 1-6 against them (The Pats win without Brady). So do the math, and they played 9 teams below .500 and still couldn’t go .500. Next year, if you just look at the QBs they will be playing, it looks like hell. You got Cam, Brees, Ryan and Winston in the NFC South and then you have Carr, Rivers, and Alex Smith in the West. Oh, and you have that Tom Brady guy, twice. Andy Dalton is on the docket and he’ll have AJ Green back.
UGH.
I don’t want to use the word tank because I believe you can win in the NFL if you don’t have a top 5 pick (See: Steelers, Pats, Packers, Ravens), but this roster as it stands, doesn’t cut it. Arguably, the Bills 2 best players on both sides of the ball (Kyle Williams/McCoy) are in the twilight of their careers. I’ve said this before, but when you are a mediocre franchise/team, you always try and find up and coming players who you can hang your hat on for the future. Guys who will help with the turnaround and be the types of players who you can build around. Who is that for the Bills?
Sammy Watkins, who I think is a game breaker, is becoming a question mark because of injuries. Marcell Dareus has had his issues and true or not, there’s a narrative coming out of some local media folks that he’s lazy and the coaching staff from last year felt he didn’t give a shit during meetings (Could be sour grapes since he shat all over Rex’s scheme). Ronald Darby regressed. I have zero idea what I have with our 1st and 2nd rounders from 2016.
Where are my younger guys who will be here for the next 10 years? This is what happens when you mortgage draft picks in trades and you aren’t very good at developing. You can trade a 6th round pick for Mike Williams, but when you are still doing that to trade up for Ragland/Sammy and trading picks for Bryce Brown, eventually, it catches up. The Bills are about to say goodbye to the 2013 draft class. Yeah, 4 seasons in and Buddy Nix’s last draft class (WITH DOUG WHALEY IN THE “BATHROOM” AND NOT HAVING ANY SAY! -Russ Brandon-) is going to be erased if they let Bob Woods/EJ go.
So, as I lay out this roster and schedule, I think it would behoove the Bills to just blow this roster up. I’d consider trading everyone who is 28 or older. Kyle Williams and Shady even. I’d also let Tyrod go because if my opinion on him only going as far as the team around him goes, then he’s not going anywhere. The Bills have had only two true bottoming out over the drought (2001/2010) and when you think about it, they probably should have had more based on not making the playoffs every year.
Do I like this plan I’ve set out? Not really. I’d like it more if the GM/President who helped put us in this mess weren’t the ones leading the franchise to clean up their own mess, as that’s messed up. However, this is where we are at.
To me, Whaley/Pegulas have to stop trying to make a run to .500 and just trade off anyone who is 28 or older. Yeah, going 20 years without playoffs is a realistic with my plan, but when you think about it, even if the Bills somehow snuck in at 9-7 next year, we’d love it at first because the streak is over, but then once NE/Pitt/Oak destroy them in the WC, I think we’d be back to late 90s logic when we jettisoned Doug Flutie for Rob Johnson because we didn’t want to be just 9-7 or 10-6. We wanted to win the SB, not just make the playoffs.
Now, this isn’t like the bullshit narrative that came out of WGR during the Sabres tank years where one player is going to make us great again. A top pick isn’t going to change everything as it was told to us that the GM didn’t matter. There’s a shitload of moving parts that need to work for the Bills. The current scouts and GM need to know how to find diamonds in the rough and guys at the top of the draft. It will always be a team game, not just on the field, but off it. We all know how that’s worked so far with this front office (Badly), but the more picks you acquire by trading your vets, the more chances you get on hitting on players, specifically, young players.
The time is now and the rebuild needs to be on full throttle. The Bills aren’t 1 or 2 players away from contending. They are, unfortunately, about 11 players away right now. It’s time for their hierarchy to realize they are messed up and stop worrying about marketing the team for 2017. Winning usually is the best way for a team to markets itself and that’s what I want.
Doug Whaley seemed to reverse course from “We are close” to “we need to set a consistent foundation”. Doug, I’m not thrilled with you these days, but go with the latter because you are closer to bottoming out than you are from the top.
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