The Evander Kane Problem by @evancdent

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BUFFALO, NY - SEPTEMBER 23: From left to right: Tyler Ennis #63, Evander Kane #9, and Ryan O'Reilly #90 of the Buffalo Sabres talk in-between whistles during a game against the Ottawa Senators at the First Niagara Center on September 23, 2015 in Buffalo, New York. (Tom Brenner/ Getty Images)
BUFFALO, NY – SEPTEMBER 23: From left to right: Tyler Ennis #63, Evander Kane #9, and Ryan O’Reilly #90 of the Buffalo Sabres talk in-between whistles during a game against the Ottawa Senators at the First Niagara Center on September 23, 2015 in Buffalo, New York. (Tom Brenner/ Getty Images)

If you have decided to save your sanity and have #loggedoff twitter during these slow, slow, summer sports months, you might have missed that Evander Kane was arrested (and given a perp walk) following an incident at the esteemed Buffalo bae Bottoms Up, resulting in a misdemeanor trespassing charges (probably reentering the bar after getting kicked out) as well as four non-criminal harassment charges. Naturally, people are talking about how this will affect Kane’s status with the Sabres.

Before diving into any talk about Kane and his future with the Sabres, we have to address that Evander Kane is more scrutinized than other players because he is black in a predominantly white sport. Kane’s bad reputation from his days in Winnipeg was born out of racial animus, and people tried to hide that by saying that he was too brash, or showy, or enjoyed being famous too much, something that mostly irks hockey people when that player is black or foreign. The only real off-ice problem that Kane had before coming to Buffalo were scattered reports of bad late-night behavior and his teammates not liking him; not ideal, but not the worst. But in the past year, his first playing for the Sabres, Kane has been the subject of two criminal investigations for his behavior with women, and one has resulted in misdemeanor harassment charges. This is a troubling pattern, no matter how many times Kane has otherwise done good things for the community. So we can say this clearly: Kane was unfairly labeled as a problem player in Winnipeg, but has become one in Buffalo.

With that established, let’s talk about Evander Kane the player, and his contract. For me, there is no level of play that excuses serious off-ice transgressions – I don’t really care that he partied and missed a practice, but alleged sexual assault and harassment are unacceptable – and I wouldn’t want him on my team, but plenty of people will take the good on ice play with the bad behavior. That’s probably why I’m not an NHL GM, who make moral trade-offs all the time. Sabres GM Tim Murray has reportedly looked into trading Kane after his latest incident, and probably got some calls, because GMs will put up with a lot for a player who can help them win. So what could Kane garner on the trade market?

If he were to be traded right now, it would be at his lowest value, and getting even a second round pick and some decent prospects would be the best one could hope for. Unless Murray gets a deal that knocks his socks off, Kane will probably remain on the team for the beginning of the season. But once the season gets going and people inevitably start forgetting about what just happened – like Ryan O’Reilly last year after his DWI charge – Kane would be the rare young talent available whose contract is not expiring at the end of the year he’s traded. He wouldn’t be just a rental player; the team would have control of him through the 2017-18 season. That’s appealing to a lot of teams, especially smaller markets who can’t attract free agents. The last big-name player I can remember being traded as a non-rental was Keith Yandle two years ago, as the Coyotes tried to out-tank the Sabres and traded Yandle to the Rangers for a first round pick and top prospect Anthony Duclair.

Kane is younger than Yandle was and arguably plays a position more in demand on the trade market, so the return for him (as long as he is fully healthy and producing reasonably well) would ideally be at that level – a first rounder and a great prospect. Some things complicate this, though: Kane’s off-ice issues will make some teams wary and drive off bidders, and Murray may demand a lot in order to recoup the bevy of assets he gave up to acquire Kane in the first place. While I don’t see the Kane deal as much of an overpay – Myers and Bogosian is an even swap in my book, Stafford was done in Buffalo, Joel Armia and Brendan Lemieux are never going to be anything special, and only the first rounder really hurts – plenty of people disagree, and Murray may want to save some face in any trade. All things considered, though, I think the best you could hope for this year would be something like the Eric Staal trade this past year – Kane for two seconds and a B level prospect.

That’s why it seems most likely that, barring any new circumstances, Kane will play out this season in Buffalo, and depending on how he produces – and if Buffalo makes the playoffs – they’ll reassess. Their options after this upcoming season will be wide-open: they can sit back and hope that Kane (finally) keeps his nose clean after this and becomes a valued contributor and keep him through the last year of his contract, resigning him if they have the future cap flexibility. Or they could keep Kane around till the next trade deadline and try to flip him for assets. At that point, Alexander Nylander may be ready to step into a top 6 role, and Kane could be expendable. They could try to shed his contract in the upcoming expansion draft, although that’s a worst-case scenario, and if the situation is so toxic that you’re willing to lose his contract for nothing, even a Las Vegas team starved for young talent might pass on him. In a similar vein, they could just let him play out his contract and then let another team sign him as a free agent.

To speak of Evander Kane’s trade value right now feels a little ghoulish; he’s a person first, not an asset, and his alleged actions have had negative impacts on people around Buffalo. Most of all I hope he gets the kind of help he needs so that things like this never happen again. In the meantime, I don’t expect him to be traded anytime soon, and I expect the experience of watching him on the Sabres will be strange for everybody.

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