2017 AL Cy Young- A Two Horse Race

Cleveland Indians v Boston Red Sox

In the eyes of most baseball fans, the race for the AL Cy Young award is really down to two names, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber. Through no fault of his own, Kluber is at a slight, yet significant disadvantage. He plays in mid-market Cleveland and not Boston, and he also missed about a month due to a back injury early in the season. To many it as a foregone conclusion that Sale has the award all but locked up, not just because of where he plays, but because he has never won the award, where Kluber did in 2014.

Considering Kluber did miss a few starts in May, let’s take a look at the season statistics starting on June 1st (not including todays start in which Kluber had 9 K, Sale 12 K)

Sale-  8-2, 2.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 119 strikeouts, and 13 walks over 83⅓ innings

Kluber- 7-1, 1.70 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 142 strikeouts, and 15 walks over 95⅓ innings.

Kluber has a 0.68 lower ERA, 0.12 lower WHIP, 23 more strikeouts, and has gone 12 more innings than Sale. Unfortunately for Kluber the Cy Young is a full season award and he only managed one start in the month of May due to injury. In that one start on May 2nd at Detroit, Kluber went 3.0 innings, giving up five runs on seven hits.

Looking back to the beginning of the season, Kluber started off extremely slow. In April he had starts in which he gave up five earned runs against Texas, and six against Detroit for a month total of 16. For comparison, Kluber gave up six earned runs in June, and 10 in July which is more Cy Young worthy.

One glaring statistic that needs to be pointed out is how well hitters do against each pitcher as the game goes on. For sale, opponent batting average increases each time through the order. After hitting just .165 the first time through, the other team is hitting .435 the fourth time through and beyond. Kluber on the other hand gets stronger as the game progresses. The first time through, opponents hit .186, while the fourth time through and on they only hit an impressive .150.

2017 Cy Young Predictor – AL
RK PLAYER TEAM CYP G GS IP ER K SV SHO W-L ERA VB
1 Chris Sale BOS 150.7 24 24 168.1 47 241 0 0 14-4 2.51 12
2 Craig Kimbrel BOS 126.5 48 0 50.0 8 92 28 0 4-0 1.44 12
3 Corey Kluber CLE 118.0 20 20 139.2 42 192 0 2 11-3 2.71 12
4 Drew Pomeranz BOS 109.7 23 23 127.1 48 132 0 0 12-4 3.39 12
5 James Paxton SEA 107.0 20 20 119.2 37 138 0 0 12-3 2.78 0
6 Alex Colome TB 104.2 49 0 51.2 19 42 34 0 2-3 3.31 0
7 Ervin Santana MIN 100.0 24 24 156.1 57 125 0 3 12-7 3.28 0
8 Roberto Osuna TOR 99.1 51 0 48.2 18 67 29 0 3-3 3.33 0
9 Carlos Carrasco CLE 98.7 23 23 138.2 59 152 0 0 11-5 3.83 12
10 Brad Peacock HOU 98.2 26 13 88.0 30 112 0 0 10-1 3.07 12

ESPN MLB CY Young Predictor 2017

Kluber’s stats are comparable to Sale considering the four less starts, but one thing that stands out is that Kluber has two shutouts compared to none for Sale. This is surely related to the earlier stat that Shows Sale’s opponent’s batting average increasing as the game progresses. Kluber gets stronger later in the game, where opponents are able to get to Chris Sale in a big way.

Corey Kluber’s stamina and shutouts are not enough to overcome his slow start in April, and missed games in May, however. Even with his few deficiencies, Sale has been consistent throughout the season in his dominance. Even though it should not matter, there is some validity to the fact that Sale has an advantage playing in a bigger market in Boston, and getting more national attention. Add that to the fact that Sale has never won the award, and if the race were neck and neck at the end of the season, those two things would be more than enough to give Sale the advantage.

One possibility could be that Sale could win AL MVP, and Kluber the Cy Young. It is possible for Sale to win both, but if the race is still close at the end of the season, or Kluber makes it even a little closer, voters could give the award for the best pitcher to Kluber to acknowledge is performance this season, while naming Chris Sale the MVP.

Second, before Kluber, on ESPN’s Cy Young predictor, is Boston closer Craig Kimbrel (28 SV, 1.44 ERA). While there is no doubt that Kimbrel may be the most dominant pitcher in the game, the reluctance for writers to give the award to relievers has to be taken into consideration. Eric Gagne was the last reliever to win the award in 2002 with 55 saves and a 1.20 ERA for the NL, while Dennis Eckersly was the last to win for the AL in 1992. If there were not two starters having the dominant seasons that Sale and Kluber are having, I could see Kimbrel being a legitimate candidate, but barring two massive meltdowns, this is not the year for the closer.

Arrow to top