Should the Indians try to Bring Back Joe Smith?

The Indians came into 2017 with the fourth best bullpen in the AL in 2016 and the fourth best from 2011 through 2016, but that still wasn’t good enough for Terry Francona. He had to bring back the Indians star reliever from 2011 through 2013 to give him enough options to feel truly comfortable.

Of course, the reason Smith was available in the first place from Toronto (in exchange for Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor) was because he was a free agent at the end of the season. Given the return, this was a hefty cost compared to Jay Bruce, an every day player who came from the Mets for just reliever Ryder Ryan. Even so, Smith was big for the Tribe, saving Bryan Shaw from overuse down the stretch and replacing Dan Otero on the post-season roster. The question remains; if his brief return to his former franchise rekindled enough of the romance to make the Indians want to bring Smith back and for Smith to want to stick around.

Rather than attempt to guess at the psychology of a late reliever, we’ll look at whether or not Smith can still be expected to be a viable reliever at the age of 34 and if the Indians really need him. After his original free agent deal signed with the Angels for $15.75M over three years, Smith signed a second deal for one year with Toronto this year at $3M. There is no great comparison as far as a modern pitcher of similar age and talent, but the best is likely Tyler Clippard, who signed a two year, $12.25M deal with the Diamondbacks last year. Clippard, however, was considerably younger when he signed than Smith is now.

The 2017 season was a real breakout year for Smith. After having a 7.8 K/9 for his career, he struck out 11.8 in 2017, pushing his FIP from 4.99 in 2016 to 2.10 in 2017. In addition, he significantly dropped his walk rate to a career best 1.7 per nine.

The chart above shows Smith’s career splits vs right and left handed batters for his entire career and in 2017 alone. Last year, he significantly improved vs right handers, particularly in strike out and walk rate, while his numbers stayed similar vs LHH. He also saw a slight increase in right handed batters faced, another factor that may feed into his increased success overall in 2017.

The idea of maintaining this success as a right handed reliever beyond 33 is not completely crazy. While there are far more players attempting to continue a career through their mid-30’s than actually are able to, since 2000 there have been 190 seasons of 1+ WAR from a right handed reliever who was 34 or older. While 7 of the top 11 such seasons should probably be thrown out in any comparison as they belong to Mariano Rivera, there are plenty of mid-level and lesser relievers who have continued success late in their career.

While a better pitcher than Smith, Joe Nathan was a similar style pitcher and, despite missing all of his age 35 season, came back to have two more excellent years at 37 and 38 with Texas. Other pitchers with similar career walk and K rates to have great post-33 seasons since 2000 include Bob Howry, Todd Jones, Santiago Casilla and multiple years from Kyle Farnsworth.

Of course, these are all individual, arbitrary examples and don’t predict anything for Smith himself. In fact, it’s nearly impossible to predict a reliever’s next season with the exception of the truly elite pitchers like Rivera. Smith has been consistently good enough for so long that he’s somewhere between the truly elite (like Cody Allen and Andrew Miller) and the Scott Atchisons of the world. There should be a reasonable expectation that he’ll be an above average reliever next year, although he probably won’t be as good as he was in 2017.

The second part of this equation is if the Indians need him. The immediate answer is kind of, but they’ll need him more in 2019 than they do in 2018. Both Allen and Miller hit free agency after the 2018 season and Bryan Shaw is already there. The bullpen that has been fourth best in the AL since 2011 and was second best in baseball in 2017 is potentially going to lose the three biggest pieces within two years. Outside of Zach McAllister, who is also a potential 2019 free agent, the rest of the Indians bullpen is under control for a long time. However, there isn’t a single pitcher there who can be considered an obvious replacement for Allen, Miller or Shaw. Even if you were to say that Nick Goody, Tyler Olson and possibly a converted starter (think Mike Clevinger or Shawn Morimando) were going to be able to replace them at some point, you would still need other middle relief options that aren’t readily apparent in AAA or even AA.

With that in mind, signing Smith to as long as a three year deal would make sense on a personnel level. He could immediately replace Shaw as the Indians attempt another run in 2018, then could maintain in that role, move to temporary closer or fall back to a middle relief position based on his own performance and that of the younger pitchers around him. It’s too far in the future to really predict what will happen with individuals, but based on the minor league situation, it isn’t too far to guess that Smith won’t be pushed out of the bullpen by the incredible number of minor league relief aces.

What this decision will really come down to then isn’t Smith’s talent or the roster, but money. If they could bring him back for something like a three year, $9 to 12M, it would be fair, but not excessive. Given that Miller makes $9M per season and the Indians offered Boone Logan a $7M option for 2018, the Indians would have to be comfortable with the dollar amount.

It would certainly still be a risk. Many times we’ve seen an older pitcher come into camp to try out for a spot, only to get cut, then bounce from team to team until retirement. It would also likely be a low ball offer for Smith, who may prefer to keep going year by year, attempting to make the most out of each season individually. Coming off his best year since 2014, Smith could potentially grab a one year deal between $8 and $10M. This is where his motivation, which is unknown by any except Smith, his agent and possibly Allie LaForce, matters most.

The Indians should definitely be motivated to bring him back, especially if he comes at a lower price and for a longer period than Shaw. While he left initially after just one year under Terry Francona, the Indians manager has a way of inducing loyalty, making the decisions of the athletes who played under him impossible to predict.