The Uncertainty of Cleveland’s Outfield

While the Cleveland Indians have done an exceptional job during the offseason by filling needs at 1B/DH (Edwin Encarnacion) and in the bullpen (Boone Logan), one of their biggest offseason needs has gone largely unfilled.

Cleveland’s outfield situation was essentially one big question mark going into the off-season, and adding Austin Jackson and Willy Mo Pena into the mix on minor league deals isn’t going to do much to make the picture clearer.

At this point, the surest thing Cleveland has in its outfield is the right field platoon of Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer, who figure to combine for between 2-2.5 Wins Above Replacement (based Zips and Steamer projections), which would be roughly league average for a single player. That kind of production wouldn’t be worrisome if it was meant to be complimentary, but when it is the highlight of the outfield, it may be a cause for concern.

Certainly, there the potential that Chisenhall and Guyer aren’t the most productive players in Cleveland’s outfield for the year, but I also don’t think anyone would bet money on another Cleveland outfielder surpassing 2.5 WAR in 2017.

Michael Brantley certainly has the ability, posting 6 WAR in 2014 and 3.7 in 2015, but coming off two major surgeries – and reports that his injury is even more serious than Cleveland has revealed – counting on Brantley for anything at all in 2017 seems premature.

Meanwhile, Tyler Naquin actually posted 2.5 WAR as a rookie while only playing 116 games in 2016, so some may be inclined to think he could easily improve on that in 2017. However, the .441 batting average on balls in play, 30.7% strikeout rate, and 23.7% line drive rate all suggest Naquin is in for massive regression from his 135 wRC+ in 2016. Unfortunately, his bat is all the carries him, as his -9.4 UZR/150 and  -17 Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as one of baseball’s worst defensive center fielders in 2016. As it stands, Naquin is probably a true-talent below average player who needs platooned – and the projection systems agree, predicting him to be worth around 1-1.5 WAR in about 120 games in 2017.

At this point, if Tyler Naquin isn’t starting in center field for the Indians at the beginning of the year, another should-be fourth outfielder – Abraham Almonte – probably will be. Almonte has averaged 1.38 WAR per 140 games in his MLB career to date, so he doesn’t have much more upside than Naquin. However, as a solid defender who has proven to be able sit around 10-15% below league average with the bat, he does have a higher floor. He also provides more versatility as a switch-hitter, although he has been much better against right-handed pitchers (90 wRC+) than lefties (76 wRC+) for his career. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Naquin get the chance to earn the starting job, but if he struggles, Almonte is a solid fall-back option.

Austin Jackson will also get the chance to make a splash in center field. A classic low-risk, high-reward candidate, Jackson had a decent season in 2015, posting 2.3 WAR, but had a below-replacement 2016 before undergoing knee surgery, and is now on the wrong side of 30. With that in mind, it seems unlikely the former Tiger can regain his form of an above-average (or even average) every day player. At best, Jackson will probably be the right-handed half of a platoon with Naquin or Almonte, but even then, Jackson hasn’t consistently hit lefties better than right-handers (102 wRC+ vs LHP/98 wRC+ vs. RHP in career).

One real question is what will happen if Brantley is unable to start in left field to begin the season after Jose Ramirez, Rajai Davis, and Coco Crisp played there for much of 2016, when none figure to see time in left next season. The most likely short-term solution would just be shifting Almonte, Naquin, or Jackson to left, but prospect Yandy Diaz could be a better, long term solution. Scouts aren’t completely sold on Diaz as an MLB regular, but he has put up the numbers (149 wRC+ in 2016 in AAA Columbus) to deserve a shot. Steamer’s projection system views Diaz as just 5% below league average, which when paired with his solid glove, would leave him as roughly league-average player – which is would put him as good as anyone currently in Cleveland’s outfield.

Of course, Diaz isn’t the only prospect who could make an impact in 2017 – Top 100 prospect Bradley Zimmer and sleeper Greg Allen both are regarded having the potential to be every day center fielders in the future. Zimmer must improve his contact ability and Allen can add power and improve his routes in the outfield, but both are intriguing options for Cleveland. That said, it remains to be seen if either are MLB-ready, despite both entering their 24-year old seasons.

All things considered, the Indians seem to have taken the same approach for 2017 they did in 2016 – throwing a group of largely average-at-best players together and mixing and matching them based on matchups and who has the hot hand. Last year, the sum of the outfield was greater than the whole of its parts, and with no guarantees for above-average production, the Indians will have to hope for a similar outcome in 2017.