This Time It Counts: Going for the Best Record in Baseball

World Series - Chicago Cubs v Cleveland Indians - Two

It’s somewhat amusing that a primary argument against the winner of the All-Star Game having home field advantage in the World Series was that players from last place teams could ultimately decide the fates of the pennant winners, then the season that finally saw the change take place included an All-Star game where the winning pitcher came from the AL champion and the NL starting line-up included four position players from the NL champs. No matter what, the change has been made. No longer will the All-Star game winning league gain home field advantage in the Fall Classic and it will not revert to the every other year format either as the team with the best win/loss record overall will gain home field advantage.

Historically, this solution would have been unfair as many times the team with the better win total got there more because their league was weak rather than because they were good. Of the teams who won 110 or more games before divisional play, the 1906 Cubs had the benefit of the Boston Beaneaters and St. Louis Cardinals going 101-200 while the 1909 Pirates saw the Cardinals and Boston Doves (same team, different name) go 99-206. In 1954 when the Indians completed the feat, both the Orioles and Athletics lost 100 games, combining to go 105-203. The Indians and Cubs both lost the World Series in these seasons despite the gaudy record and, in fact, only the 1927 Yankees seemed truly deserving of their win total.

What’s the point of going back in time over 100 years? The current idea is that interleague play will mix the leagues enough that something like this will not be possible. With an odd amount of teams in each league, there is an interleague series going on at all times throughout the season with the Indians playing eight series (20 games) against NL teams. However, this means teams still play 142 games against their own league and, more importantly, 19 against each other divisional foe.

This brings us to the point where the Indians are in a very unique position in 2017 to take great advantage of the rule change. While the Indians are just projected for 92 wins according Fangraphs and 93.5 according to Vegas (Westgate), there has been an extreme drop off in expectations for the rest of the Central, even compared to 2016. The White Sox have went from borderline contender to full out rebuild mode, trading Chris Sale and Adam Eaton with a decent probability that they will continue to move veteran players throughout the year. The Twins should be a little better, but they were the worst team in all of baseball last year, so that isn’t saying much. Both the Royals and Tigers are projected to be .500 or worse and with that, Fangraphs has the Indians with an 88% chance of winning the Central already, second to only the Cubs for winning their division.

Winning the division is the first step in a return to the World Series and, while it shouldn’t be taken as a given as anything can happen throughout the season, the Indians should do so handily. However, while they could win the division with 90 wins, this new rule gives incentive to continue pushing the edge. The Cubs are projected to win just 95 games and will have to face off with National League foes that include five of the nine teams expected to win more than 85 games.

There are so many games to be played before any of this really matters, but for a team whose expectations have been lifted beyond simply being happy to be contending for a Wild Card spot, the motivation could be useful.

In the end, as we’ve said before, the Indians didn’t sign Edwin Encarnacion to beat the Boston and they certainly didn’t sign him to beat Detroit. The team that came back from 2016 already did both of those things. The Indians signed Encarnacion to beat the Cubs. It is extremely difficult to repeat as league champions and the odds are even greater for both teams repeating, something that has happened just nine times in World Series history, most recently in 1977-78 with the Dodgers and Yankees.

As unlikely as it might be, both Vegas and Fangraphs agree that the Indians and Cubs are the most likely teams to win their division and, with the Red Sox, the most likely to get to the World Series. The Indians will need every advantage to beat both Boston and Chicago should it come to it and that means regularly beating up on their Central Division mates, it will have to be done. The Cubs will certainly be attempting the same against Cincinnati and Milwaukee.

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