Who Will Stay and Who Will Go? 2017 Edition

Cleveland Indians v Chicago White Sox

With more than 40 players used by the Cleveland Indians during the 2017 season, it can be a bit confusing to understand the contract situations of every single one. With that in mind, everyone who ended the 2017 season in the Indians organization and has at least some Major League experience is listed below based on their length of team control.

The Free Agent Class of 2017

The Indians went into the 2017 season with just two expiring contracts, Bryan Shaw and Carlos Santana, but added Austin Jackson before the season started, then Jay Bruce, Joe Smith and Craig Breslow mid-season. Potentially, the Indians could sign any of these players, although they certainly don’t have the finances available to sign all of them. There is certainly a need for a first baseman with Santana potentially leaving and no real AAA option, but given how much he would likely cost to resign, the fact that Bobby Bradley is about two years away and how much they are already paying Encarnacion, there’s little hope in retaining the first baseman.

There’s no questioning Terry Francona‘s love for Shaw, but he too is set for a big pay day and the Indians may be comfortable with their relief situation as there are quite a few starters who could be converted into permanent relief roles with all the regular rotation spots spoken for. Smith is in a similar situation, but while he’s likely to see a much smaller deal than Shaw, the Indians owe him less loyalty.

Finally, there is Bruce. While many fans immediately embraced Bruce, the outfield is still a strength for this team with Zimmer and Allen coming up in 2017 and Chisenhall and potentially Brantley still around for 2018 (more on them later). If Kipnis’ move to the outfield is permanent, there is even less room for Bruce, so he is almost certainly one and done. This goes for Jackson as well, although there is less motivation to bring him back.

2018 Options

Three players have options heading into the 2018 season, Michael Brantley for $11M ($1M buyout), Josh Tomlin for $3M ($750K buyout) and Boone Logan for $7M ($1.2M buyout). The easiest to say that the Indians will use is Brantley’s as it’s impossible to find a hitter of his caliber for $10M. The ankle injury he suffered that cost him much of 2017 is no the kind that has a tendency to linger like his shoulder did and they at least owe him one more chance to have a healthy season. In any event, 2018 will likely be his final year in Cleveland unless he is able to have that healthy season.

Logan is probably the easiest to guess that the Indians will say no to. While he was fine in 2017, he wasn’t worth $7M even when he was healthy and with the way Olson played out towards the end of the season they may be comfortable going into the future without the veteran reliever.

Finally, there is Tomlin. His option is incredible cheap for a player of his talent level and the Indians would be silly not to use it, but there really isn’t any room for him in a healthy Indians rotation. The smartest move on paper would probably be use the option and trade Tomlin, but we all know the Indians don’t simply deal in numbers and time and time again they have backed Tomlin when the obvious solution would be to move on.

Around for One More Run

Only one player is guaranteed money in 2018 that has no further contract after, Andrew Miller. He is owed $9M for the season and, while the Indians may try to extend him, there’s no chance of him not pitching the entire year for Cleveland.

Also seeing their time with Cleveland potentially end after 2018 are three players heading into their final year of arbitration, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach McAllister and Cody Allen. While there are obvious in house replacements for Chisenhall and McAllister, losing Shaw after 2017 and both Miller and Allen after 2018 would decimate the Indians bullpen, so look for the Indians to aggressively try to keep at least one of the three. If Shaw does leave after this season, Allen may be the favorite for an extension as he’s played his entire career in Cleveland and would likely be cheaper on the open market than Miller. Because he isn’t guaranteed anything for 2018, the Indians could also use a large guarantee next year as a bargaining chip, something they don’t have with Miller.

Also slightly fitting in this category is Brandon Guyer, who is guaranteed $2.75M with a $3M option for 2019 ($250K buyout). The money is so small for an established Major League hitter (even a platoon bat) that if he’s healthy, the decision will likely be completely based on if there is a roster spot available for him going into 2019. Dan Otero is the only other player who will see his years of team control end after the 2019 season as he should hit his third year of arbitration then if he stays with the team.

Through 2020

Since 2014, the Indians have been big on retaining players through the 2020 season with long term extensions, signing 7 players to at least that year. In particular, Carlos Carrasco‘s last guaranteed year of his deal is 2018, but he has two team options that will almost certainly be picked up that will bring him through 2020. Edwin Encarncion and Jason Kipnis are guaranteed through 2019 with options for 2020 that are from being a sure thing and if anything, look more likely to be bought out then used as of this moment. Of course, that could change ten times before they need to be considered seriously.

Two of the Indians most prime extension candidates also have expiring years of team control after 2020. As super 2 players, both Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar will hit their fourth arbitration seasons in 2020 and would have to be extended to remain with the team further. With 3 years of arbitration left for each, this is the perfect time to look at some kind of extension as the players would be more willing to take less money just to be sure it is guaranteed money.

Abraham Almonte will also hit his final year of arbitration in 2020, but it would appear there is little room on the roster for him now, so he is unlikely to reach that point while still a member of the Cleveland Indians.

Sticking Around for the Long Haul

In addition to the players listed above, Yan Gomes, Jose Ramirez, Roberto Perez and Corey Kluber have all been signed to extremely long deals. Each was signed to at least a five year deal and all have two team options to end that deal. Ramirez is guaranteed through 2021, Perez 2020, with Kluber and Gomes  through 2019. At the moment, none of these players are worth worrying about options or extensions due to the length of the deals already in place.

Also under team control through arbitration through at least 2020 and sure to stick around (barring trades) are Francisco Lindor, Giovanny Urshela, Mike Clevinger, Erik Gonzalez, Ryan Merritt, Shawn Morimando, Nick Goody, Yandy Diaz, Bradley Zimmer, Tyler Olson, Francisco Mejia and Greg Allen. Some of these players could be extension candidates (really just Lindor, but potentially Zimmer or the relievers), but for the most part the Indians will likely let them play out a few more seasons before making long term guarantees.

In addition to those players, Shawn Armstrong, Cody Anderson, Kyle Crockett, Tyler Naquin, Joe Colon, Perci Garner and Adam Plutko are also under team control through 2020. These players have dealt with injuries (Anderson and Garner), suspensions (Colon) and losing their positions due to a combination of ineffectiveness and the appearance of a superior replacement. Between the rotation and the bullpen, there might be room for one of the six pitchers listed here and many are out of minor league options, so expect to see a few leave this off-season even though they potentially could stay through 2020. The only position player, Naquin, has been displaced by two superior defensive center fielders and is unlikely to continue with the team, but could remain as a fourth outfielder.

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