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SaturdayEdge.com’s Best Bet for Week Thirteen

South Carolina – Clemson O 61.5

I’m not a big fan of overs, especially ones lined in the 60’s, but Clemson is going to score points in this game. They have an elite offense led by QB Taj Boyd (169.80 pass efficiency, tops in the ACC) and dynamic playmakers Sammy Watkins, Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins. The only defense they have played this season anywhere near as good as South Carolina’s is FSU, where they scored 37 in Tallahassee. South Carolina has held 7 of 10 opponents below their offensive season averages (Clemson avg’s 45 ppg), but South Carolina also hasn’t faced very many explosive offenses in the SEC  (allowing 21.14 ppg vs teams that avg only 26.50).

Defensively Clemson is just not very good and South Carolina should be able to run the ball on the Tigers. Clemson is allowing 26.50 ppg vs teams that avg 26.16. But if we take a closer look, the Tigers have also benefited from playing some really bad offensive teams (Auburn, BC, Va Tech, Wake Forest and Maryland). Against the better offenses on their schedule (Ball State, FSU and Georgia Tech, the only three teams they’ve played who avg more than 30 ppg) Clemson is allowing 35.67 ppg. The Gamecocks are avg 32.60 ppg, but that is against some very good SEC defenses including Vandy, Georgia, LSU and Florida.

So we have an elite Clemson offense going against a very good, but hardly elite South Carolina defense, and we have an efficient South Carolina offense going up against a bad Clemson defense. Both QBs are top three in their respective leagues in pass efficiency and neither offense has really been stopped this season (Clemson avg’s 45 ppg vs teams that allow 28.52 and South Carolina avg’s 32.60 ppg vs teams that allow 28 ppg). On paper, it is difficult to see either of these teams not scoring at least 30 points today.

South Carolina 35 Clemson 31


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