Great week last week picking straight up as I went 8-0 but wasn’t as successful against the spread as I posted a 4-4 record. I got killed by the non-conference games. Thanks Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee. For the year I am 71-14 straight up and 39-38 against the spread. Let’s jump into week eleven….
Line: South Carolina by 13
Just when you think Arkansas is getting better they go and lose at home to Ole Miss and then just get by Tulsa by four points. The Gamecocks have had a week off to lick their wounds and they return home where generally speaking, with the exception of Tennessee, they’ve blown teams out this season. Take the Gamecocks and the points.
South Carolina 35 Arkansas 21
Line: Florida by 26.5
I like Florida a lot in the game (who doesn’t) but I don’t love the point spread. Florida has only won two games by that big of a margin (26.5 points) all season and in one of them, South Carolina, they needed a ton of turnovers. Louisiana can score points (averages 35 per game) and the least amount of points they’ve scored this season is 23. Another factor against the point spread is that Florida is averaging the least amount of points in the SEC in wins. Go with Florida, but don’t bet on it.
Florida 35 Louisiana 14
Line: Tennessee by 3
Both of these teams have performed poorly on the field and against the spread. When in doubt I’m going with the team that has the better offense and is at home. Let’s ride with the Doolander and hope Tennessee forgets they are Tennessee and Missouri remembers they are Missouri.
Tennessee 34 Missouri 27
Line: Alabama by 13.5
This one sets up as the best match-up of the week. Alabama is coming off of a hard fought come from behind win against LSU on the road and A&M just blew out Mississippi State on the road. A&M feels a little like the Georgia team from last year. They are taking care of business against most teams but haven’t been able to get over the hump against the toughest teams on their schedule. That’s not a knock against A&M because I think they are way ahead of schedule under Kevin Sumlin but I wouldn’t expect them to come in to Alabama and knock off the number one team in the Nation but I think they might keep it close.
Alabama 27 Texas A&M 17
Line: Georgia by 14.5
Georgia has underperformed on the road so far this season as they got blown out by South Carolina and struggled to beat Kentucky and Missouri. But Auburn has struggled non-stop this year with their only victories coming over ULM and NMSU. No matter how many times I play this out in my head it finishes with Georgia beating Auburn and the point spread.
Georgia 35 Auburn 14
Line: LSU by 15
The Bulldogs have gotten fat on cupcakes early in the season and they’ve paid the piper in the last two games losing to Bama by 31 and the Aggies by 25. Mississippi State is a nice team that is going to beat teams not as good as them but they aren’t at the level of LSU. Expect a win by the Tigers in this one.
LSU 31 Mississippi State 10
Line: Ole Miss by 3
While A&M/Bama is the “sexy” match-up this week, this could be the most competitive. Ole Miss is coming off of a blowout at the hands of Georgia after they looked like they were going to keep it close and Vandy is on a three game win streak (all of which have come against inferior opponents). Both of these teams are fighting for bowl eligibility. Both teams really need this game but Ole Miss needs it more. On paper this looks like a close match-up. The odds say that Ole Miss has done a slightly better job this season against the point spread so I’m going to ride with the home team as they get a bounce back victory after the loss to Georgia.
Ole Miss 30 Vandy 24