Keeping a promise

Alan Draper

Sports Editor

December 25 2008 2 min read

I offered to complement my post on Manning’s numbers last week with a special FO update after the week 16 data was included.

Here’s the raw data:
Year DVOA DYAR

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1998	4.3	574
1999	29.5	1427
2000	35.1	1766
2001	10.9	822
2002	16.2	1089
2003	33.5	1756
2004	60.9	2522
2005	40.4	1598
2006	51.8	2308
2007	40.6	1845
2008	35.3	1634

Here are the graphs for Manning’s DYAR totals (over the course of a season how much better is Manning than a ‘replacement level’ QB) and DVOA (on a per play basis how much better is Manning):

This basically shows that Manning is on par with his 2003 MVP season. He has a better DVOA, and slightly fewer DYAR (in only 15 games). Again, this backs my hypothesis that Manning has had a typical Manning season. Again, this data has no pull at all with MVP voters, but it’s fun to look at. For the record, Manning is now #2 in the NFL in DYAR behind Drew Brees and #2 in DVOA behind Matt Ryan for the 2008 season. Manning is unlikely to pass Brees, but he could well finish ahead of Ryan should Ryan have a rough game on Sunday.

Unrelated “Gift of the Nerd-i” moment:
How old are we again? As my family opened presents this morning, we were delighted to see that Demond had sent us an Indiana Jones Mr. Potoato Head for the kids.

Little did he know that he was about to receive a present from me, 10,000 miles away. An Indianapolis Colts Mr. Potato Head. Yikes.

Talk about reading from the same playbook.

Links:
The Star polled MVP voters, and Manning fared well.

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