The Big IF

So once again, the Brett Favre watch is back on. Though I certainly don’t take his latest threats of retirement serious, it does bring up an interesting conflict for Colts fans.

On one hand, we all want Peyton to hold all the meaningful passing records.  The longer Favre plays, the tougher it will be on 18 to catch him.  However, if Peyton gets it in his head to beat Favre’s marks, then the longer Favre plays, the longer Peyton plays.

So, IF Favre really is done we can calculate how long it will take Peyton to pass his records.  In my mind the biggest records are:

• Touchdown Passes (3rd all time…2014, 5 seasons, 39 years old)
• Yards (4th all time…2014, 5 seasons, 39 years old)
• Wins (4th all time…2014, 5 seasons 39 years old)
• Consecutive Starts as a Quarterback (2nd all time…2015, 6 seasons, 40 years old)
• Completions (3rd all time…2015, 6 seasons, 40 years old)

So, IF Favre is really done, what could keep Manning from hitting those marks?

• An injury-Obviously, football is a brutal game.  On any play, a block can be missed, a knee can be blown, ect.  This goes without saying.  Any major injury would obviously break the consecutive starts streak.
• A strike-As of right now, this is a long shot.  A lockout is far more likely.  The nice thing about a lockout is that the owners don’t bring in replacement players.  However, if the union decided to hold a preemptive strike (over collusion for example), Manning’s consecutive game streak could end if a replacement QB piloted the Colts.
• Exhaustion-Manning puts a lot into his preparation and training.  It doesn’t seem likely to me, but you never know when a guy decides he’s done ‘enough’ and decides to move on to another career, start a family, ect.  If Peyton wants the records, he’ll get them.  The question is whether or not he’s willing to pay the physical and mental price to get them.

It’s important to note that if Favre changes his mind in mid-season and comes back, all the records keep extending EXCEPT the consecutive starts streak.

Personally, I’ll believe that Favre is done when I see it.