Welcome to the offseason. I logged in to Twitter this morning to see this hot, steamy take sitting in my mentions:
Frm. Lightning GM @brianlawton9 on TSN1050Radio says the front runners to land Steven Stamkos are in order: 1-#Leafs, 2-Tampa, 3 #Bruins
— Simon Dingley@CBC (@SimonDingleyTV) June 27, 2016
This, obviously, threw Bruins fans into a tizzy. The idea of having Steven Stamkos, a top 5 NHL player, in a Bruins sweater is an incredible one. Think about it:
Marchand – Bergeron – Stamkos.
The TD Garden would be nicknamed ‘The Twinkie’ because everyone inside of it be covered in each other’s creamy explosions. As usual, I am the bringer of bad news and the destroyer of dreams. I’m afraid my friends that I got some bad news for you:
Steven Stamkos to the Boston Bruins is fucking stupid.
Right away you’re probably scoffing at this and I don’t blame you. Let’s think about this for a second:
When the Bruins were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the first thing everyone claimed was that Boston needed defense. The defense is in shambles, comprised of aging bodies and bottom pairing guys. There is no #1 or #2 defenseman currently sitting on this roster, right now. Could Colin Miller be a #2 guy? Maybe, but he’s not right now.
When Don Sweeney signed Kevan Miller to an extension, we all pissed and moaned about the defense being in shambles.
During the NHL Draft, we waited with baited breath that Don Sweeney was going to trade for Kevin Shattenkirk or Cam Fowler. Now, a mere two days later, all of that is thrown away because Steven Stamkos may want to sign in Boston. I get that the name is sexy, but it isn’t feasible. A week ago it was a Marchand extension, a Krug extension and getting two #2/#3 defensemen.
Signing Stamkos doesn’t allow any of this to happen.
The Bruins currently have $21,648,333 in cap space – which sounds fucking wonderful at first. Let’s forecast that Stamkos is going to want $10M per year. This makes him one of the highest paid players in the NHL. If he wants to be the highest paid player in the NHL, you’re looking at an AAV of at least $10,750,000 per year (Patrick Kane currently makes $10,500,000 per season). We’re already out on a limb so let’s say he wants $10M per year.
The Bruins are now sitting at $11,648,333 in cap space without actually touching any of their needs. They still have to re-sign Torey Krug, they still need to extend Brad Marchand and they still need to figure out what to do with their defense. Steven Stamkos now allows the Bruins to trade David Krejci, but there’s some problems here:
- The Bruins have never really shown the balls to trade “their” guys. Lucic was a special case. Everyone knew that Lucic wasn’t going to re-sign and wanted to test the trade market. Krejci has five years at $7.25M and a no movement clause.
- David Krejci has a no movement clause. While it is probably easy to get a player to waive his NMC, there’s a chance Krejci says no. This leaves Sweeney’s hands tied because there’s nothing else he can do with the player. Buy him out? Ha, you jest friend.
- Krejci has the hip of a 75 year old. Krejci underwent hip surgery about a month ago and is “eyeing” a return for Bruins camp. Why would another team take this chance?
- His cap hit is large. You’re not going to trade David Krejci for Kevin Shattenkirk because the Blues want to shed salary cap. You’re not going to trade him to Anaheim for Cam Fowler because the Ducks currently have $15M+ (AAV) locked up on their centers in Getzlaf and Kesler. It is possible that you could get a cap floor team to bite on Krejci, but it’ll be tough based on his injury.
So if the Bruins can’t get rid of Krejci, they now have a dilemma of where to play him. Do you pay a 3rd line center $7.25M per season? Do you move Stamkos to wing? Well that’s a problem since Stamkos has already stated he doesn’t want to play wing. “Hey, you get to play with Patrice Bergeron!” isn’t going to work on everyone, especially a guy who is now your highest paid player. The highest paid player usually gets what the highest paid player wants.
$11,000,000.
It is clear the Bruins need defensemen. Let’s say they magically are able to pull off the Shattenkirk trade. Shattenkirk is making $4.25M this year. Now we’re down to $6.75M in cap space. So we have our #1 defenseman, but there still needs to be a #2 (or #3). In my eyes, that’s targeting Jason Demers. Demers would be perfect for this team but he’s going to want a raise over his $3.4M contract from last season. Let’s use round figures and say that’s $4M.
Cap space: $2.75M.
We haven’t even talked about a Torey Krug extension. We haven’t filled holes with the roster (backup G, third and fourth liners) and we haven’t qualified our restricted free agents. We just talked about bringing in Steven Stamkos and the trickle effect (a term I fucking hate) that could happen.
The Bruins don’t need Steven Stamkos. Last season they ranked 5th in the NHL in goals for per game. They were ranked 7th in PP% in the NHL. They were 4th in shots per game. The other side of the coin?
20th in goals against per game.
11th in PK% (better than I would have guessed, honestly).
18th in shots against per game.
Get defensemen, stop living the NHL 17 pipe dream.
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