Quantcast
The Sports Daily > Firebrand AL
Moving On; Remaining CF Options

The Coco Crisp deal is falling apart by the second. Jayson Stark, along with numerous Cleveland newspapers, have reported that the proposed Red Sox-Indians trade has gone from ?

Comments

  1. The A's just resigned Kotsay to a 3-year extension this year, and I was under the impression he got a NTC. I could be wrong about that.

    Like

  2. So this is the third Red Sox blog I've had my name mentioned in. It's good to know that my utter batshit insanity is being recognized by the community.
    Man, Marte is ruining my life.

    Like

  3. Nah. If you've been active enough with your opinion that you've been mentioned in 3 different Red Sox blogs, you're like me: you have no life.
    Which might bother some people. I take it the other way. No life, no life to be ruined. No pressure, see?

    Like

  4. What happened to Austin Kearns?
    I discussed him in great detail in late July when there were rumours of the Cubs moving to acquire him.
    Regarding his 2002 season…
    "When it comes to batting average, there are three true outcomes – the home run, the strikeout and the ball in play. And one of the best indicators of a player playing over his head, if not the best, is an average supported not so much by strong home run and strikeout ratios, but by an unsustainably high average on balls in play. Given that the absolute vast majority of hitters these days struggle to hit more than .330 on balls in play once the sample size becomes significant, no one should be surprised that Kearns hasn't been able to live up to the expectations his first 435 major league plate appearances unfortunately set for him, since that debut stint was characterised by a .370 average on balls in play that was never going to last, and accordingly hasn't. The Kearns we saw in 2003 (.297 on balls in play) was not a player in a sophomore slump, it was the real Austin Kearns – a decent hitter, particularly for his age, one with pop and plenty of patience, but enough strikeouts to deliver his average to a place where you'd rather it wasn't (around .250-.260). Kearns is no real .315 hitter – he wasn't in 2002, he hasn't ever been since, he won't be again in the future unless big changes occur."
    Regarding peripheral regression…
    "Since his rookie year, not only has Kearns' AVG/OBP/SLG line gone backwards, but so have all the peripheral numbers, and they're often the best indicator as to a player's future. Kearns' strikeouts in his rookie year were bad enough, but they've become a lot worse since, his walk rate has been steadily declining too, and his power has stagnated. Such a peripheral regression is very uncommon in a player of Kearns' age – youngsters typically find themselves getting better as they adapt to having seen more major league pitching. It's highly likely then that Kearns' regression from his 2003 line has been linked to the series of injuries that he's suffered, and a lot of them you have to say he was unlucky to befall. I'm not convinced then that Kearns won't be able to get back to hitting roughly what he's capable of hitting. All the same, if it does happen, it will take time."
    On Kearns' future…
    "I think it's far fetched then to think Kearns will turn into one of the better outfielders in the game any time soon. Even if Kearns turns it around, he'll still only be a .250/.350/.450 type hitter with further upside during his peak years. That kind of a hitter is useful, even good, definately worth having, but at a corner outfield position, that's not even close to the All-Star calibre production that the Reds seem strangely convinced is in his future everytime another team dares express an interest."
    From July 20th through season's end, after being demoted to the minor leagues that is, Austin Kearns hit .253 and had a .353 on-base percentage. He did though improve beyond my immediate expectations in the power department, slugging .498 with 15 doubles and 12 home runs. It's only 255 plate appearances, so whether or not that's sustainable remains to be seen, but, if it's for real, it's long overdue, and it'd represent that upside during his peak years that I was talking about.
    Kearns isn't a centre fielder.

    Like

  5. Talk about hitting the nail on the head….."but once Cleveland started using our desperation as a bargaining strategy"……I do not know how the centerfield situation will be resolved, but I do believe it is being worked on with the right pair, and not 2 pair, of hands.

    Like

  6. Kevin Towers would make the Roberts/Wells deal straight up if the Sox picked up the difference in the two contracts or a hefty portion of it, don't you think?

    Like

  7. I personally don't want to see Roberts in a Sox uniform again, because any return would be a disappointment. I mean, he's become a hero in these parts, and wouldn't you hate to see him hit .260 at Fenway?
    Not to mention, to be completely fair, his skill set isn't quite the greatest. And this comes from someone who loves the man.

    Like

  8. Can someone please tell me why we're getting Bard and giving up Shoppach? If we could have gotten Shoppach as apart of a Ryan Shealey deal (with Col) earlier, he should have higher value than Josh Bard. I just don't understand it at all…

    Like

  9. I can tell you why we're getting Bard. Shoppach is a sweetener in the deal for Cleveland, and the Sox need a major-league backup catcher in case Flaherty or Varitek gets hurt. The Sox also would need someone to handle Delcarmen, Hansen and Lester in Pawtucket — assuming Bard has options left. Bard is said to have a good reputation for handling pitchers.
    In my mind this is a much-overlooked, important part of this trade. If Varitek gets hurt, there's no Mirabelli and no Shoppach. We traded two of our top three catchers. They're betting a lot of Varitek's health.

    Like

  10. Matt, you are very, very right: the BrainTrust is betting a lot on Varitek's health. Especially with Flaherty around.
    What I think they're banking on is this:
    Jason Varitek: age 34, 836.1 AdjG
    Javy Lopez: age 35, 1199.5 AdjG
    Jorge Posada: age 34, 1007.9 AdjG
    Jason Kendall: age 32, 1302.4 AdjG
    Mike Lieberthal: age 34, 1029.9 AdjG
    Ivan Rodriguez: age 34, 1703.8 AdjG
    Mike Matheny: age 35, 1082.8 AdjG
    Charles Johnson: age 34, 1092.6 AdjG
    All ages as of next season. Adjusted games (AdjG) can be found at Baseball Prospectus and is defined in their glossary as "the estimated number of real, nine-inning games played at this position."
    We all know Varitek was a late-bloomer. Let's hope it pays off over the next year or so.
    But thinking about this very thing was what prompted me muse, a couple of days ago, that we might be doing ourselves a favor to hold onto Shoppach if possible. We traded Mirabelli. Varitek might have a couple of good years left in him, but other than Shoppach we don't really have any realistic options to fill the void as Tek declines.
    Catchers take time to develop. Because catching is, by all accounts, a very demanding job, not only physically but also mentally. Catchers need to be mature. Takes time. Shoppach has had that time. If we trade Shoppach now, when we're looking for Varitek's replacement a couple of years in the future, who in our system right now is going to have had that development time?

    Like