Closer to a National Championship: Notre Dame Football or Basketball?

When the Notre Dame men’s basketball team lost to West Virginia in the second round of the NCAA tournament this year I was disappointed. Admittedly, part of that feeling stemmed from the fact that I picked the Irish to advance to the Elite Eight in my bracket. Mainly, I was disappointed because they were unable to play their best when it mattered most. Compared to the season Notre Dame’s football team had last year, though, the basketball team’s season looks pretty darn good. But which program is closer to winning a national title?

To answer this question I began thinking about how difficult it is to win a national championship in basketball and football. Both sports have a single-elimination tournament at the end of the season to determine the national champion. The NCAA tournament consists of 68 teams (including the play-in games), and the College Football Playoff (CFP) only includes 4. While it’s easier to be selected to participate in the NCAA tournament, the road to the championship is longer. Because of the size of the tournament, a team needs to win six games to win the championship. The opposite is true for the College Football Playoff. It’s very difficult to be selected to play in the CFP, but a team only has to win two games to win the championship.

So, which is the tougher task? I went back and forth on this one. Both are extremely difficult to accomplish, but I believe winning a national championship in football is slightly harder to do. For me it came down to two things.

First, teams do not have complete control over their destiny in college football. At the end of the season, a selection committee decides which four teams will play in the CFP. Undefeated teams have been left out of the CFP due to factors like strength of schedule. A common fan response to this is, “Just schedule harder teams. Problem solved!” Well, not quite. These games are scheduled years in advance, and all teams have ups and downs. If one of your opponents underperforms the year you play them, it hurts your team’s strength of schedule.

Second, injuries are much more common in college football. Teams have to be prepared to handle the attrition that comes with the 12-game regular season (13 games if you play in a conference championship game). It’s extremely rare to see a team enter the post-season completely healthy.

Back to the original question: Which Notre Dame team is actually closer to winning a national championship? Before the Irish made back-to-back trips to the Elite Eight in 2015 and 2016, Irish fans would not hesitate to answer this question. Today, they would pause to give it some thought. Despite my belief that it is harder to accomplish, I think Notre Dame’s football team is indeed closer to winning a national championship.

For me, the biggest difference is recruiting. Comparing recruiting for two different sports isn’t apples-to-apples, but it’s clear that Notre Dame’s football program has had much more success in recruiting. Over the last 8 years (not including the 2017 recruiting classes), the football program’s recruiting classes had an average rank of 12.7. Over that same period, the basketball program’s classes had an average rank of 44.1.

There are a couple of things that can explain the disparity in recruiting. First, the football program is much more valuable. According to Forbes, Notre Dame’s football program had the 2nd highest revenue in the country in 2015. As a result, the University invests more money into the program. They can afford to pay higher salaries to coaches, update team facilities, and provide the team with the latest equipment.

Second, the football team has a decorated history. Notre Dame football has won 11 national championships. The basketball team has never won a national championship. The furthest they’ve made it in the NCAA tournament was the Final Four in 1978.

Third, Mike Brey does not recruit the elite “one-and-done” players. Instead, he looks for players that will buy-in to Notre Dame’s culture and stay for three or four years (hopefully until they graduate). Brey believes he can bridge the talent gap by fielding a team that has more experience playing with each other and within Notre Dame’s system.

Another reason why I think Notre Dame football is closer to winning a national championship is that they have more control over their destiny than most teams in college football. The Notre Dame brand is one of the strongest brands in college football. This isn’t going to bump the Irish up 5 spots in the polls, but I think it’s a tie-breaker in Notre Dame’s favor. The CFP selection committee doesn’t put much weight on it, but they do consider the TV ratings of the CFP games. All things equal, if the committee had to choose between Notre Dame and Washington, they would select Notre Dame every time. Additionally, the Irish have a handful of very good teams that are on their schedule every year (USC and Stanford to name a couple). Most years they will not have to worry about their strength of schedule holding them back from a spot in the CFP.

Well, that’s my two cents. We would love to hear your opinion, too. Join the conversation on Twitter by using #DebateGDD, and don’t forget to follow @NDDomerDaily and join our email list.