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2017 NFL Draft: Predicting which quarterbacks get drafted, and where

Last year, I wrote a similar prediction post of what I thought about the 2016 QB Draft class, where they would get drafted and how many QBs would get picked. I was money on some picks, and completely off on others.

I predicted a total of 12 quarterbacks to be drafted over three days and seven rounds; 14 were drafted. So I was close on that overall prediction, however I was off on a lot of the teams that I either predicted who would draft a QB or where they would go, like Cardale Jones, who I only predicted to the Browns or 49ers, and that’s my bad, because earlier in my post, I saw Buffalo was going to take a QB in the middle of the draft, which they did.

This years QB class is much different and in all honesty, minus Wentz and Goff, overall, might be better right now, than last year’s rookie QB class was.

The amazing thing is, in the last five NFL Drafts, a total of 57 quarterbacks have been drafted, yes, 57. They are as follows:

2012- 11

2013- 11

2014- 14

2015- 7

2016- 14

The names have included Andrew Luck, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Wentz, Goff, Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater, and Kirk Cousins.

That same list has included pretty much the entire 2013 class, RG3, Brock Osweiler, Brandon Weeden, Bortels, and Johnny Manziel, QBs that haven’t lived up to the hype or never took off to begin with.

And that’s the beauty of the NFL Draft and in particular the QB Class, like it or not, they are the life of the party of the draft. They are the first thing everybody talks about, and it’s fun.

The 2017 class offers a group of four passers that are the best of the bunch and could all go on Day 1 of the Draft. That’s followed by as many as four to six second and third day selections, giving us what we believe to be a group of 8-10 QBs taken in this year’s draft.

With that, let’s take a look at teams that are QB needy:

  • Arizona
  • Buffalo
  • Cleveland
  • NY Jets
  • NY Giants
  • San Francisco
  • San Diego
  • New Orleans
  • Washington
  • Pittsburgh
  • Houston
  • Kansas City
  • Indianapolis

These are the teams we’ve identified as either needing a QB, looking for depth, or have been rumored as possibilities to land a QB. With that, we’ll quickly run through each of the teams listed:

Arizona- The Cardinals are going to draft a QB this year, you can almost take this to the bank. The only question is where? Round 1, 2, 3, or later on Day 3.

Buffalo- The Bills are a huge question mark if they aren’t sold on Tyrod Taylor nor Cardale Jones. I would put this at little to zero chance they get a QB, but you never know. I didn’t think Miami would take anybody last season, and they did.

Cleveland- This is a no brainer.

NY Jets- I put the Jets on the list because just about everybody believes they’ll take a QB, but in my honest opinion, I don’t think they need a QB. They have Bryce Petty (2015) and last year’s second round pick, Christian Hackenberg. They are OK at this position, but again, you never know.

NY Giants- Eli Manning is turning 36, and at some point, you’re going to have to start preparing the franchise for the next signal caller. If not this draft, then maybe the next.

San Francisco- The 49ers might be the most interesting storyline when it comes to QB this draft. If they take a passer, except it to be a day two or more likely, a day three pick in rounds 4-7.

LA Chargers- See the Giants above

New Orleans- See the Giants and Chargers above

Washington- Another interesting storyline here. Kirk Cousins is the man right now, however if a long term deal isn’t worked out after this season, and because they’ve exhausted the franchise tags on Cousins, the Redskins could be on the outside looking in when it comes to their QB in 2018. They can draft a QB in rounds 2-4, and develop him under Cousins this season just in case Kirk leaves. If not, then no worries at all.

Pittsburgh- Big Ben hinted at retiring this offseason, and the Steelers already have a solid backup in Landry Jones, however, Pittsburgh could be looking at someone different other than Landry. Maybe he’s not the long term answer they are looking for and is viewed as more of a backup QB than a starter.

Houston- The Texans are taking a QB in this draft, there is no doubt about it. They will not play the entire 2017 season with Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden as their QBs.

Kansas City- I don’t think the Chiefs need a QB, they are ok with Alex Smith, but he did suffer what many people thought, were two concussions in one game. They’ve also played musical chairs with their backups the last couple of seasons (Tyler Bray, Nick Foles, Chase Daniel, and Aaron Murray), so it leaves the Chiefs with a lean towards adding a passer.

Indianapolis- The Colts will add a QB strictly for depth

So with the 13 teams listed as possible QB needy teams, we take a look at the prospects we have getting picked in the order we have them ranked.  And with that, we have our predictions for the 2017 quarterback draft Class.

Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina

Round 1: Browns, Jets, Bills,

Deshaun Watson, Clemson

Round 1: Jets, 49ers, Browns, Texans, Cardinals

Patrick Mahomes III, Texas Tech

Round 1: Cardinals, Texans, Saints, Browns

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame

Round 1-2: 49ers, Cardinals, Browns, Chiefs, Texans

Davis Webb, California

Round 2-4: 49ers, Cardinals, Giants, Steelers

Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh

Round 2-4: 49ers, Giants, Chargers, Redskins, Chiefs, Bills

Brad Kaaya, Miami

Round 2-5: 49ers, Bills, Giants, Chargers, Chiefs

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee

Round 4-6: Giants, Chargers, Redskins, Steelers

C.J. Beathard, Iowa

Round 5-7: Colts, Cowboys

Chad Kelly, Mississippi

Round 6-7: Bills, Colts, Cowboys, Giants, Redskins

Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech

Round 6-7: Colts