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How did you do on the over/under for Robert Griffin III?


Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

While doing a little housekeeping on Hog Heaven, I came across this old story posted September 5, 2012: Bet on it, Robert Griffin III will pass for 3700 yards and 22 touchdowns.

My friends at online sportsbook Bovada.lv shared their preseason performance projection of Robert Griffin III and other Redskins players. The regular season is over and second season is about to begin; making this is a good time for a look back.

Bovada projected an Andy Dalton-like performance from Griffin III. RGIII was better than advertised, but Bovada and Predictionmachine.com were close on his stat projection. Here's a table showing Griffin's actual performance compared to his preseason projection, and to Andy Dalton's rookie year stats.







Griffin III, 2012 Actual






Griffin III, 2012 projected






Dalton, 2011 Actual






The difference is in RGIII's projected rushing stats. No one could have guessed that the Shanahan's would call so many designed quarterback runs, especially after the inflexibility they showed with Donovan McNabb. They took a few nimble-thinking pills when given a second chance with Griffin. I would not call the change in direction a miss by the sportsbooks.

Interesting. RGIII has more rushing TDs than INTs.

Dalton was runner up to Cam Newton for AP 2011 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Bengals finished 9-7 in 2011 with Dalton at quarterback, a five-win improvement over 2010.

Our story that day also covered the over/under of other players important to the Redskins.

Santana Moss – Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       700½
Actual yards                      573                        

Santana Moss – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       5
Actual TDs                         8

Pierre Garcon – Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       975½
Actual yards                       633

Pierre Garcon – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       6
Actual TDs                        4

Fred Davis – Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                        850½
Actual yards                       325

Fred Davis – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                       5
Actual TDs                         0

Brian Orakpo – Total Sacks in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       9
Actual Sacks                      1

DeAngelo Hall – Total Interceptions in the 2012 Regular Season

Over                                      3½
Actual INTs                         4

Garcon, Davis and Orakpo missed significant time, 14 games in Orakpo's case. Rob Jackson, who replaced Orakpo, needed a little time to warm up, but ended the season with 4½ sacks, seven passes defended, four INTs – one was a pick six – and two forced fumbles.

There were no preseason projections for Alfred Morris, even from within the Redskins. There will be plenty on Morris in 2013 if only for peace of mind for all the fantasy 'ballers out there.

Keep your friends close, and your player personnel director closer

The Redskins show signs of possessing a true next-man-up roster, and of making the correct keep or release decisions about players. So, I'm deeply concerned about the Arizona Cardinals' interest in Morocco Brown, Redskins Director of Player Personnel, as a general manager candidate.

Hog Heaven is not privy to the inner workings of Washington's front office, but talent acquisition has a different feel these past two seasons. I've supported the Shanaplan after the McNabb debacle. I presume Brown had a large role in that success.

Although I'm not sure what he did, I'm not comfortable with the thought of his leaving now. But then, we haven't seen interest in Redskins staff and coaches since the Gibbs I era. It's a new sensation.

When you are successful, other teams poach your management talent. I wouldn't want to stand in the way of Mr. Brown's career progression. Short of that, I hope Mike Shanahan and Mr. Snyder are doing all that is needed to keep Brown happy and here.

Image: Robert Griffin III found on csmonitor.com via Google.

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