Paul Bessire of PredictionMachine.com has a theory about the 2010 NFL season that he narrows down to his “Redskins Hypothesis.” As Paul explains it:
“My Redskins Hypothesis is that they are the epitome of this season of parity in that the Redskins would not be more than four point favorites or underdogs against any team in the league no matter where the game is played. The theory is in relation to both the books that set the lines and our predictions. A further example of this at work is that neither team in seven of eight Redskins games this season has covered the spread more than 53% of the time in our numbers.”
Did he just say that we are perfectly average?
There’s comfort in that thought, I think. The Redskins, who are playing .500 ball right now, can be expected to be competitive against any opponent. That’s a huge difference from last season, thought it may not feel that way at the moment. ‘Skins fans are still shell-shocked from the Detriot Lions game, not so much from what the Lions did to Donovan McNabb as from what Mike Shanahan did.
Bessire hints that gamers have the tougher task with just over half their football picks to cover their bets.
Here’s what’s scary about Bessire’s Prediction Machine. He correctly forecast the Redskins’ win over the Chicago Bears and the loss to the Detroit Lions.
Here’s Bessire’s forecast for the rest of Washington’s season after loading team stats and tendencies then simulating each game 50,000 times:
Prediction Machines’s Rest Of The Way Forecast:
|Week||Opponent||Points For||Points Against||Win%|
Bessire projects three more wins for the ‘Skins and a 50-50 shot versus the Vikings in Week 12. This simulation is dated October 7, before Randy Moss moved from the Vikings to the Titans and before the Cowboys imploded to 1-5. Bessire’s projection isn’t very different Football Outsiders who projects 3.3 more wins for the ‘Skins.
We didn’t know what to expect from the Shannyskins. We sure don’t know what to expect now. Most blogger pundits, including the two of us here at Redskins Hog Heaven, expected the Redskins to finish around .500, just where they are at mid-season.
We’ll have more on the Redskins at the bye tomorrow and next week. Meanwhile, our blogging colleagues at DC Pro Sports Report posted their Redskins Midseason Awards. Go take a look. We’ll be here when you get back.
Point after: Not compensated by Paul Bessire or PredictionMachine.com for touting their work. I just admire it. That’s all.