The Sports Daily > The Belly of the Beast
Double Your Paycheck Picks Week 7

With yet another beating in the books, it's time to assess the situation that has become completely out of control.  Clearly, I have no idea what I'm doing, and more so than usual. 

I have no plan to fix the tattered remains of a once moderately successful ability to pick against spread.  I have no ability to even develop a plan that would surely fail. 

If only I were Lane Kiffin, I'd turn this 18-30-1 wreck into my own gambling site in which people paid $29.99 a month for my advice on picking games across all sports.  Football, baseball, basketball, hockey, cricket, curling, OH HOW I WOULD DOMINATE CURLING. 

All those picks would be in the weekly newsletter email with horribly fantastic clip art and a picture of me that is 15 years out of date.  In other words, I'd be stealing the outline from Dennis Franchione's newsletter to Texas A&M boosters, who paid $1200 A YEAR FOR THAT.  Seriously, $1200 A YEAR. 

And that should be a reminder that just because someone has large amounts of disposable income, it doesn't mean they know their ass from their elbow.

*These terrible selections are coming a day early due to travel and such to the Ole Miss/Texas A&M game.  If you see someone do a gainer off the top of the stadium after we unsuccessfully run the Laquon Treadwell reverse pass for the fourth straight week, that is me.

Last week:  2-5 (.285)
Season:  18-30-1 (.367)

Missouri at Georgia (-8)
Overlooked, and probably rightly so, in Georgia's escape against Tennessee, was the performance of its defense, especially in the second half.  It couldn't stop the run and Justin Worley had enough time to look like a quarterback who knew what he was doing.

I mention this because Missouri, while piling up these numbers against lesser competition, comes into this game ranked 15th in the country in rushing yards (258.8) and 32nd in passing (285).  Against teams not named North Texas, Georgia has averaged giving up 172 rushing yards a game, which, as you might guess, brings us to Todd Grantham Ball Boy Strangling DEFCON 3.

Even without Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall (and the 41 receivers currently injured), Georgia has enough on offense to score on Missouri, but there appear to be no signs that they can put Missouri away comfortably.  Throw in a noon kickoff, which is AN ELECTRIC ATMOSPHERE IN ATHENS, and Missouri should be in this until the end.

Missouri and the points.

South Carolina (-6) at Arkansas
Seems like it was a lot of fun to be a South Carolina fan this week.  Following a much closer game against Kentucky than should ever happen, your coach does a smirking minute and a half about the playing status of your best defensive player, the defensive player is later attacked by media types, and your coach then retracts, but not really retracts his previous comments about the defensive player.

And in recent weeks, South Carolina has the look of a team that can't protect leads.  Vanderbilt, Central Florida, and Kentucky all closed significant fourth quarter deficits to make it a game in the last few minutes, due to South Carolina's offense going into the tank and its defense not being very good.

Even if BERT takes a tumble before the game, he's got a strong chance to get his first SEC win.  Arkansas and the points.

Florida at LSU (-7)
After burning everyone else to the ground, the LSU offense meets its first real challenge, particularly the matchup its wide receivers face.  This is the first group of DBs that has comparable talent to LSU's wide receivers, who are absolutely terrifying.

If Florida can cover LSU's wide receivers relatively well, they'll turn LSU into a more run-heavy team, which given their size and speed up front, plays into their favor.  If they can't cover the wide receivers, then LSU can choose what it wants to do on offense and steadily pull away from Florida's alleged offense.

Even as non-LSU as LSU's defense has been, it's the Florida offense operated by Tyler Murphy.  Florida may be able to generate a decent amount of offense, but I am a CAM CAMERON CONVERT and don't believe they can keep up with LSU.

LSU to cover.

Alabama (-27.5) at Kentucky
Speaking of Lane Kiffin, he'll be on GameDay this Saturday to discuss WHATEVS, BRO and hopefully have a meet-and-greet with Paul Finebaum.  And if someone fires up David Pollack enough (ask him about women and football and committees and women), he might just try to give Kiffin a dead-leg punch.

Alabama to cover.

Bowling Green at Mississippi State (-10.5)
Dan Mullen's three favorite things about Bowling Green:

1.  Meeting his future wife there
2.  Leaving
3.  Leaving quickly

Mississippi State to cover.

Texas A&M (-6) at Ole Miss
While Ole Miss should be able to score points against a bad Texas A&M defense, they won't be able to keep up with A&M's offense of Manziel making plays and throws, and Mike Evans setting some sort of NCAA record for yards and maybe touchdowns.  Ole Miss' only chance is if A&M turns it over like they did last year and gives Ole Miss a few extra possessions against a defense that made Arkansas look like a competent offense.

But, as we now know, Ole Miss' offense is incapable of making it through a game against better competition without doing very dumb things, so they'll need a turnover margin of something like +3 or 4 in order to win or stay within a possession.  Based on what we've seen from A&M so far, that is unlikely to happen.

Texas A&M to cover.

Western Carolina at Auburn