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Brewers’ Fantasy Auction Value Projections

I decided to debunk all the overinflated fantasy rankings I’ve seen and give you what I think Brewers’ players are likely to go for in my 14-team, mixed, head-to-head, 5×5 auction league with a 23-man roster, 230 units…bear in mind, too, that half of the owners are Brewers’ fans, while most of the rest are Cubs’ fans. My preliminary values, from top to bottom:
Bill Hall: 14 units…Hall is eligible as a SS and 3B in our league (minimum of 10 games in the previous year) and, although he won’t be kept by his owner for 7, he’ll probably go for 14 units, given the 30 HR, 90 RBI, and 90 Runs potential, putting him in the top 8 at SS. Side note: I won Hall for 1 unit back in ’05 and could have kept him for that for ’06…had I not cut him after his slow start.
Ben Sheets: 13 units…Sheets’ injury history always offsets any hometown favoritism…still someone will take a gamble on Big Ben getting 30 starts and 16-18 W’s on the season, with a sub 3.00 ERA and 180 K’s quite possible.
Francisco Cordero: 13 units…mlb.com has Cordero as the top Brewer, but our league tends to undervalue closers…Cordero also struggled at the beginning of last year. A closer’s value is often primarily a function of how well the team is expected to do, so Cordero’s value in leagues may be inflated if owner’s think the Brewers will be contenders. Cordero will likely be kept for 7 in our league.
Prince Fielder: 13 units…lots of upside, but 1B is a deep position, and some owners will hesitate on a sophomore with a .270 BA last time out. Fielder was kept by his owner for 13.
Rickie Weeks: 11 units…Weeks’ value right now is low, due to the recent reoccurrence of pain in his wrist. His injury risk lowers his value by a few points.
Johnny Estrada: 10 units…Estrada will also likely be kept by his owner for 2 units, but is a sleeper…great in head-to-head leagues due to his consistent splits at home, on the road, and also versus lefties and righties.
Chris Capuano: 9 units…Cappy’s first half numbers warrant more, but until he gets a few Cactus League starts under his belt that shows he’s the Cappy of the first half, he’s only worth about 9.
Jeff Suppan: 6 units…the local hype will probably cause someone to grab Suppan over, say, a C.C. Sabathia…a patient owner might be able to snare Suppy for 2-3 late in the draft.
Dave Bush: 5 units…Bush’s 1.17 WHIP is appealing…if you can absorb that 4.50+ ERA…his value goes down if he becomes the 5th starter.
J.J. Hardy: 5 units…a gamble and good for a backup…if Hardy somehow manages to emerge as the #2 hitter, his value jumps for owners needing to add Runs.
Corey Hart: 4 units…another gamble, but probably one worth taking in deeper mixed drafts or NL only drafts.
Tony Graffanino: 2 units…a good backup for the start of the season.
Ryan Braun: 2 units…he probably won’t be drafted in our league, as he’s not eligible to start at 3B until he gets a game there in ’07…but someone to add as a FA if he makes the MLB roster.
Geoff Jenkins: 2 units…huh, you ask? I had Jenkins last year, and cut him after 4-5 weeks…but Jenks did have 50+ RBI’s before the end of May, if I recall correctly. As with Hart, a good gamble for a reserve OF.
If anyone else has had their auction draft already, please feel free to share any results…thanks,
David Hannes
Copyright 2007