I predict the Saints will get a WR in round 3 and, if they do not trade for Butler they will get an Offensive Tackle at #32*! Stay tuned to find out which positions & players I drafted.
As you can read in my previous post “Mock around the Clock – part 1: Moneyball free agent style” there are certain hotspots in which a lot of players at a certain positions are available. None are bigger then WR at #103. Of all the mocks I did there was none only without at least 3 WRs available in the top 8 at that spot. One time it was even 5! Bye bye Coleman?
Certain positions do not have hotspots. Simply because there are not much players in the position. There are only 32 staring QBs in the league. That is why it is so stunning that there are no LB hotspots at all! The hotspots I identified can be seen in my last post but I will list them here;
- #11: EGDE and CB
- #32: OT and S
- #42: EGDE, CB and S
- #76: WR and S
- #103: WR
- WR in round 3. You can not tell me the Saints, with Sean Payton, do not have a mark on all those 3rd round WRs and know exactly which one they want. They will get one. I am sure.
- #32 is best suited for OT and S. Often an OT would drop to that pick. It would give the Saints depth in case of injury and Striefs replacement.
- Trading for Butler is very much ok with me. #32 is best suited for positions the Saints do not need as much as CB.
- There will be EDGE players at #42 if the Saints go Fournette or Lattimore with #11.
- Safety is very deep this draft, though with the signing of Bush you might want an other player there.
- A QB could be drafted but the chance is about 20%.
As to my drafts; I did a total of 14. Note these are always the best available players at positions I allowed myself to draft (read my rules here). So if there is a QB available that does not fit the Saints I still draft him. Speed mocking is not about thinking. Also mostly the QBs I drafted were in round 3 except for Mahomes when he was there at #32.
Here is what I drafted at positions I did not exclude. For example when the highest available pick was Guard I drafted the next guy in a position of need. I added notes or player names that I found interesting.
- Offense: 28 / 70 picks
- QB: 3 times;
Kaaya, Kizer and Mahomes
- RB: 2 times;
1 time McCaffrey at #32
- WR: 13 times,
ALL of them in round 3 as outlined by my own rules. I told you, it is happening people!
- TE: 4 times
- OT: 6 times;
almost always at #32
- QB: 3 times;
- Defense: 42 / 70 picks
- EDGE: 19 times;
mostly it was Barnett (9) or Thomas (2) at #11. I never went past #42 without an EDGE player. Since I allowed myself to draft an other one in round 3, I went over 14 and got an EDGE player in the 3rd round 5 times.
- LB: ZERO!!!
- CB: 14 times;
I never went past #42 without one. I got Lattimore 4 times. He is a valid option at #11 if Butler is not a Saint come draft day.
- S: 9 times;
I do not like drafting a Safety before the 3rd round but a lot were drafted at #32 or #42. Safety is really deep across the first 2.5 rounds. I passed on Jamal Adams at #11 a few times.
- EDGE: 19 times;
Other things I would like to note:
- It is about 50% that Reddick is there at #11. He is a main reason EDGE has a hotspot there. Take him away and EDGE drops from 26 to about 18 I think. Still a major hotspot.
- Barnett is ALWAYS there at #11 but is rated above Reddick. They are different types of players.
- Foster is also there 50% of the time but I DO NOT WANT! him. I cannot stress that enough. I can not believe the Saints would draft him. If so I will start a trend #NotMySaints.
- Taco NEVER makes it to #32. He is most likely not a Saint next year unless they select Tre Down at #11.
- Fournette is available at #11 also about 50% of the time. Would be very intriguing if the Saints would draft him. If they do I expect them to trade up back into the first round to grab an EDGE player.
- Brian Pavek has made me want McCaffrey at #32 but the chances of him dropping are really small. I would say smaller then Mahomes being there at #32. I have seen him go to Philadelphia at #14 often. They must love him as a RB. Weird since they still have Sproles. But if Mccaffrey gets past #14 the chance is a lot bigger.
- Tight End Howard is always there at #11. Always. But I rate the chances of me getting struck by lightning higher then the Saints drafting him.
* Drafting an OT high was not on my radar when I started drafting. I did not know about Cam Robinsons (featured) off-field issues. I still do not know much about it but that might have the Saints not picking him at #32. I did not factor it in like I did with Reuben Foster.