I honestly do believe the Saints will be trading Chris Ivory to the Jets on Thursday, with compensation being the only question mark. I also believe there's a very strong chance it won't happen till just before or slightly after the 13th pick overall which the Jets now possess. Here's the deal, based on everything I've read the Jets are trying to convince the Saints to part with Ivory for a 5th round draft pick. That's what's been offered so far and that is what they are sticking by, for now. The Saints want a 4th rounder. If the Saints don't let Ivory go now for compensation, he'll walk next offseason for nothing. I know he's a nice player but he's the fourth back on this team, we all know it, and the Saints like their fifth back in Travaris Cadet very much too. I believe the Saints would part ways with Ivory right now if the Jets agreed to give them a fourth round pick. So both teams will wait until the 13th overall pick before making a decision because it works out in the best interest of both parties. Here's why:
— If the Jets don't see anyone at 13 they HAVE TO HAVE, they can slide back two spots, offer the Saints to move up 2 spots and throw in that 5th rounder, and the Saints are probably taking it. If the Jets do see someone they have to have at 13, they can elect not to trade that pick and instead give the Saints a 4th rounder for Ivory. It's a win/win for the Jets because they either get a guy they love at 13 and lose a 4th for Ivory, or they move down just two spots and hope the Saints settle for a 5th rounder thanks to the upward movement in the first.
— If I'm the Saints I wait to see who is available at 13. If there's no value for them moving two spots up and they believe the guy they want will remain available two picks later, there's no reason to accept a 5th rounder. Pass on moving up and mandate the 4th round pick, which the Jets will probably relinquish to not lose out on Ivory who they clearly like a lot.
I do think the end game is Chris Ivory with the Jets via trade, but I don't see this game of chess ending until both teams know what will be available at that 13th pick. No one knows that now, but when the time comes that will give both front offices a lot of direction with which way to go. Frankly there is no point in making the trade before then because it would be stupid on both sides. Making a decision without all the information available to you is never wise practice. Now, I'm half hoping Star Lotulelei is available at 13 because then I make that trade to move up, take a 5th rounder for Ivory too, and never look back. The problem is I see the Jets at 13 saying, nah, here's a 4th rounder for Ivory, we'll take Lotulelei ourselves. We'll see how it plays out, but expect more clarity on this topic around the time the Jets are on the clock for the second time on Thursday (they also have the 9th pick overall).