Week nine of the NFL welcomes the Philadelphia Eagles as the new overlord of gridiron, much to the chagrin of Steelers faithful. Philly has a great chance to extend their winning streak to seven against the Broncos, before a perfectly timed bye week.
A couple of rare, cross-conference matchups promise to break longstanding, historic trends which stretch all the way back to the early days of the NFL. If you’re interested in taking a look at the straight up week nine picks for every game, fear not as Be A Better Bettor has you covered.
EZ-PZ Spread Of The Week
Denver at Philadelphia (Eagles -8.0)
Pick: Eagles to cover
The NFL has been full of surprises this year, but the sudden resurgence of the Denver Broncos offense is not among the miracles of 2017. Coach Vance Joseph finally kicked Trevor Siemian out of the starting QB position, choosing pivot Brock Osweiler for their next matchup.
This is mostly a lateral improvement, like replacing a 1998 Honda Civic with a 2002 model.
Philadelphia has jumped through enough hoops to earn the NFC’s team to beat moniker. The Eagles have the best point differential in the league, winning by an average margin of 9.5, an extra point and a half above this week’s spread.
The Broncos showed signs of life against the Chiefs, and Siemian promptly suffocated these seeds of hope by throwing three picks and getting sacked three times, finishing with a 43.5 passer rating. Brock will be an upgrade by default, but the Eagles should still cover the spread.
Historic Spread Of The Week
Oakland At Miami (Raiders -3.0)
Pick: Raiders to cover
Here’s a fun fact that your grandpa will appreciate: Oakland have won just two games in Miami in the past 28 years. The Raiders seem to fade against the Dolphins, which has resulted in a five-game losing streak dating back to 2008.
Fast forward to 2017, when the much-hyped Oakland Raiders started to fall apart after two weeks. Oakland enter Miami territory with a 1-5 mark in the past six weeks. The Dolphins find themselves chasing the suddenly competent Buffalo Bills, but another loss by Miami will push them yet again to the edge of irrelevance.
Miami were the victim of another wacky Thursday night game, getting picked apart by the Ravens in the 40-0 shutout. Matt Moore joins a long list of QBs who have proved themselves to be worse than Kaepernick, and Jay Cutler’s playing under the pain of busted ribs. Oakland will take advantage of this chance to break their Miami losing streak.
Mystery Spread Of The Week
Kansas City at Dallas (Chiefs +/- ?)
Pick: Chiefs to cover
Our parity-laden pick of the week features the Cowboys welcoming the Chiefs to their billion-dollar stadium, where Jerry reigns supreme. The Chiefs and Cowboys rarely play, meeting only ten times in the past 48 years.
Dallas have a slight edge with a 6-4 record, including four straight wins at home against Kansas – which means the Chiefs haven’t beaten the Cowboys on the road since 1983.
More importantly, Ezekiel Elliott will not suit up against Kansas, removing one of the biggest threats in the Cowboys lineup. The Chiefs have slowed down a bit over the past few weeks, their last win being gifted to them by the Broncos. As such, the spread could be as little as -3 in favor of Kansas City. Double check the lines closer to game time to validate the value of a Kansas win.
Disrespectful Spread Of The Week
Detroit at Green Bay (Lions -3)
Pick: Detroit to cover
Not sure which Green Bay game the experts watched last week, but according to Pro Football reference, Packers back-up pivot Brett Hundley has a 39.7 passer rating since Aaron Rodgers collarbone malfunctioned.
Brett’s doing his best, but he’s accumulated 4 picks and five sacks in the past two games. He hasn’t tossed a TD in six quarters, and rushed the ball half as far as he threw it against the
New Orleans Saints, finishing with 131 total yards.
These truly dire numbers have earned the Lions a field goal spread against the Packers, which seems disrespectful to Detroit considering the disparity at the quarterback position. However, since the Packers have a 27-7 record over the Lions since the turn of the century, there’s a chance that Detroit will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Rodgers’ injury give the Lions a great chance to win their third game at Lambeau since 1991.