I really wish I could find some numbers on what the expected points would be in that situation, whether they’d kick the field goal or go for the TD, so that one could see that statistically, it makes sense to go for it, much like the 4th and 2. However, 99% of the time a coach will kick that Field Goal, especially with over 9:00 left in the game. But that 1% is when you’re facing Peyton Manning. Much like Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2, Josh McDaniels felt better about his offense picking up the 4th down, than to let Manning have the ball back, still with the lead. As we saw on the ensuing drive, it probably was the right decision, even though the outcome didn’t work out for him.
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