Daniel Bard- Will it Work?

The early results from 2012 spring training for the Sox starting rotation have been generally good. Josh Beckett-1-0, 1.29 ERA. Alfredo Aceves (possible starter)-0-0, 1.00. Clay Bucholz- 2-1, 2.70, Felix Doubront-0-0, 3.00. Jon Lester- 1-1, 3.38. Looking further down the list, however, you see something alarming. Daniel Bard is 1-1, 8.22, 7 2/3 innings, 8 hits, 8 runs, 7 earned runs. Not a good sign for a setup man-turned-starter.

A few weeks ago, I wrote that both Jim Palmer and Ron Guidry had started out in the bullpen. But they were youngsters finding their way, not established relievers making the change. Looking at the stats, we find that since the setup man/closer system began over 20 years ago, successful changes to starters have been rare.

The only man in recent Sox history to accomplish the feat was Derek Lowe, who led the league with 42 saves for Boston in 2000, and just two years later was starting, winning 21 games, and even throwing a no-hitter. Lowe, whose off-field problems are well documented, does deserve a lot of credit for this. Even Tim Wakefield was a full-time reliever for only one season in his long career. Recent attempts to move from closer to starter have seen two significant failures- former Soxer Jonathan Papelbon and Yankee Joba Chamberlain.

A check of Cy Young winners since the award began in 1956 reveal no full-time reliever to starter achievements. The other direction is more common-hurlers like Dennis Eckersley and Dave Righetti. Today everything is so specialized- pitch counts, velocity, batters faced, that a move from setup man to starter, as the Sox are trying to do with Bard, might be next to impossible.

Putting Bard back in the pen- either as setup man or closer- might make the loss of Papelbon less traumatic to the team. Doubront might be finally coming into his own, possibly as a fifth starter, and Aceves is also available.

I would hate to see Bard begin the season and get shelled in his first start. Though he is a tough competitor, it would not be easy to go back to the bullpen as a failure. The Boston fans are not in a very forgiving mood right now. The final decision should be made, and soon.