Antonio Brown is the Steelers unquestioned number one receiver. By all reports, his work ethic is second-to-none and he was the only one of the Young Money Crew to sign a long-term deal with the Steelers. Brown inked his 5-year, $41.96 million contract before the 2013 season when the Steelers were going through the saga of negotiating with Mike Wallace. As the results have shown the last few years, the Steelers made the right decision in locking up Brown for the long term. In just four NFL seasons (only 2 as a primary starter), Brown has reeled in 261 passes for 3561 yards. As I detailed last week in my post on Steelers records that could be surpassed this year, Brown is already in the Top 10 in receptions and should easily move into the top 10 in receiving yards.
This begs the question – just how good can Antonio Brown be? He is obviously a long way from breaking Hines Ward’s team records of 1000 receptions and 12,083 yards. Brown is coming off a season where he was just two catches shy of Hines Ward’s single-season mark in receptions (112) and shattered Yancey Thigpen’s single-season receiving yards record by 101 yards. He also broke Buddy Dial’s record of 92.5 yards per game from 1963. All things told, Brown’s 110 catches for 1499 yards (93.7 yards per game) will go down as one of the best single seasons in history by a Steelers receiver. In his four years with the team, Brown has recorded two 1000-yard seasons. Hines Ward did not record his first 1000-yard season until his fourth year. In fact, Brown is ahead of Ward’s career pace in both receptions and yards through four seasons.
Antonio Brown is under contract for four more years (through the 2017 season). It was in Hines’ fifth through eighth seasons that he cemented his place as one of the Steelers all-time greats.
Obviously, it would be a bit of a stretch to assume that Brown will replicate his franchise record season of 2013 in the four remaining years of his contract. However, given that Brown averages a yard and a half more per reception than Ward (13.6 to 12.1) and ten more yards per game (65.9 to 55.7), it is entirely possible that Brown makes significant progress in chasing down Ward over the next four seasons.
To date in his career, Antonio Brown has averaged 4.8 receptions per game, 13.6 yards per reception and 65.9 yards per game. However, these numbers include his rookie year when he only played in 9 games and recorded 16 catches for 167 yards. If you take his rookie year out of the equation, Brown’s averages jump to 5.4 receptions per game, 13.9 yards per reception and 75.4 yards per game. In the last 3 seasons, Brown has only missed 3 games, averaging 15 games per season. Based on these numbers, we can create projections for the next four years of Antonio Brown’s career.
Most of the projections above have Antonio Brown either coming very close to John Stallworth’s career marks or surpassing them by the end of his current contract in 2017. Hines Ward did not surpass Stallworth’s 537 career receptions until the 8th year of his career and it took him two more seasons to catch Stallworth’s record of 8,723 yards. Stallworth had a Hall of Fame career over his 14 seasons and was considered the greatest receiver in Steelers history until Hines Ward came around. Could Antonio Brown realistically catch John Stallworth in both measures by the end of 2017, just eight years into his career?
To accomplish this feat, Brown would need 276 catches and 5,171 yards in four seasons. To pass Stallworth in receptions, Brown would need to average 69 catches per season over the next four years. Based on his career to date, this should be an achievable feat (barring injury). The more difficult mark will be yardage. To pass Stallworth by the end of 2017, Brown would need to average 1,293 yards per season (approximately 81 yards per game). While Brown is coming off a season where he broke the Steelers single-season receiving yards record with 1,499 yards, replicating that performance will be difficult. Only 9 times in Steelers history has a receiver had a 1200-yard season and there have only been 6 1300-yard seasons.
Based on both projections, Brown should pass Swann in receptions this season and in yardage in 2015. Brown should also surpass Lipps in receptions in 2015 but would need 2,458 yards (1,229 per season) over the next two years to catch Lipps’ yardage mark. It seems the most likely that Brown would not surpass Lipps in yardage until 2016. Heath Miller does have a chance of passing John Stallworth in receptions (Miller trails by just 71) and could pass Lipps in yards (trails by 745) but it is unlikely that Miller will surpass Stallworth’s yardage total. Depending on how many more years Heath Miller plays, Antonio Brown could surpass him in receiving yards by 2017 as well. Obviously, this is mostly speculation based on the small sample size of Antonio Brown’s first four seasons. However, with him coming off a record-breaking season and under contract for four more years, it will be exciting to watch Brown chase down some of the Steelers all-time greats that are enshrined in Canton.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
