Enemy Intelligence/Previewing the Titans-Colts Matchup

This was supposed to be the first Enemy Intelligence post of the season, but I ran into a snag. The Colts in their first two games played Broncos and Eagles teams that are much better than the Titans. They got down early to the Broncos and didn’t play well late against the Eagles. Both games, which I watched both live and afterward, were hard to get a read from. The Colts then traveled to Jacksonville in Week 3, and it was 30-0 at halftime. I sat down with the intention of doing EI on that game, but it would have mostly been about how the Jaguars were terrible. So, scratch that idea, what you get is what I’m thinking about the game instead.

The Colts are favored to win this game, as they should be. Jake Locker probably will not play, not that that seems like much of a loss based on his play the last two games. Charlie Whitehurst, as I feel like I’ve said enough by now, has been mostly dreadful in his limited track record playing in regular season games (his last start ended with a quick hook for a still-injured Tarvaris Jackson, if that puts a baseline in your mind). That’s great if you’re a Jaguars team still looking for your first win when they come to LP Field in a couple weeks, but it makes it hard to write about the Titans. A base level of quarterbacking competence will almost certainly be required for the Titans to win this game. If they don’t get that, all bets are off. If they do get that…

The best scenario for the Titans is if the Colts think about this game like the Titans thought about the home game against the Jaguars this year-we’re better than our opponent, and if we play our game and do what we want to do, then we will win this game. The Colts Believe in running the football. They want to be able to run the football successfully. If they come out running, there’s no guarantee they’ll have great success. Their offensive line is better-not great, but better than it was-but it’s not as good as Cincinnati’s or Dallas’ was, so there’s no guarantee they’ll have the same sort of success Titans foes have had the past two weeks. They’d like to do this with Trent Richardson, which makes about as much sense as CJ?k as a sustaining runner did, i.e. about none. Toss in Pep Hamilton calling a bunch of short routes on third-and-long and/or Luck airmailing some deep outside throws, and you have a recipe for offensive dysfunction.

Shutting out the Jaguars in the first half notwithstanding, the Colts do not seem to have a fearsome defense. The defensive line is mostly competent but no better, the linebackers functional but not highly mobile-the Eagles annihilated Josh McNary in coverage, and I’d like to see the Titans try to get him in space against Dexter McCluster specifically-and the secondary Vontae Davis and a bunch of guys. As Nate mentioned in his answers to my questions, there is no real actual, apparent, or even incipient pass rush threat. Weird things happen in the NFL, but Titans Starting Quarterback should have time to, e.g., throw a pass deep downfield for Justin Hunter to drop.

One key to the game for the Titans will be field position. With Pat McAfee, they will be starting at the 20 after kickoffs and probably see booming punts. That probably means they’ll need the defense to prevent the Colts from getting many yards, or else they’re likely to start backed up again. I’ll run the numbers next week if I have the time, but the Titans have started out this season very not so good at driving the field for scores.

This is a great unrelenting portrait of doom, but the Titans have come close to beating the Colts lately. How has it happened? One, holding the Colts to field goals instead of touchdowns. Two, sustained drives holding the number of possessions in a game down. Three, scoring touchdowns instead of field goal (last year’s game in Indy). Four, taking advantage of Colts turnovers (Will Witherspoon’s pick-6 in 2012). Five, avoiding damaging turnovers of their own (Devon Wylie’s fumbled kickoff, Jake Locker’s pick-6 in 2012). Some combination of all of those will be necessary to pull off the win I’m not expecting.