Trading Junk Bonds: Swisher for Jimenez & Other Options

There are times when two teams exchange top talent, like last week when the Braves sent Jason Heyward to St. Louis in exchange for Shelby Miller. A move like that can help one team win now (the Cardinals) and another win in a few years (the Braves). In recent days, however, there have been rumors that the Indians are interested in trading Nick Swisher (or Michael Bourn or David Murphy), possibly to the Orioles for Ubaldo Jimenez or another team with an unwieldy, unproductive high salary player. This is the exact opposite as teams look to rid themselves of contracts that handcuff their spending and make them do irresponsible things like starting a .220 hitter on a daily basis simply because he is being paid $14M for the year.

If the Indians players, like Swisher, had any value to another team, there could be a possible trade for a younger, cheaper player as long as the Indians paid the majority of the exiting player’s salary, but they simply are worth less than nothing. Because of this, in order to remove one of these overpaid players (essentially Swisher, Bourn, Murphy and Ryan Raburn) it will likely require adding back someone else’s over paid player. The chart below shows a list of some such players.

      Age WAR Salary
Player Team Pos 2015 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total*
Nick Swisher CLE 1B 34 -1.0 $15M $15M $14M $30M
Michael Bourn CLE OF 32 0.9 $13.5M $14M $12M $27.5M
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL SP 31 -0.5 $12.25M $13M $13.5M $38.75M
Ryan Howard PHI 1B 35 -1.1 $25M $25M $23M $60M
B.J. Upton ATL OF 30 -0.3 $14.45M $15.45M $16.45M $46.35M
Edwin Jackson CHC SP 31 -2.3 $11M $11M FA $22M
John Danks CWS SP 30 1.1 $14.25M $14.25M FA $28.5M
Cody Ross ARI OF 34 -0.9 $9.5M $9.5M FA $10.5M
Ricky Nolasco MIN SP 32 0.0 $12M $12M $12M $37M
Carl Crawford LAD OF 33 2.4 $20.5M $20.75M $21M $62.25M
Andre Ethier LAD OF 33 0.0 $18M $18M $17.5M $56M
Matt Kemp LAD OF 30 1.1 $21M $21.5M $21.5M $107M

*Options in italics. Totals include all guaranteed years and earliest possible buyouts.

While likely incomplete, the chart above shows a few possible options. There is something wrong with all these players and in some cases, they have multiple strikes. They are all old, overpaid and provide little or negative value to their team. Many are high injury risks and poor defenders, due to a combination of age and injury. In addition, all are signed through 2016 with Kemp being the longest under contract through 2019.

Going back to the Indians situation and Nick Swisher in particular, the Indians don’t necessarily need to find a direct replacement in any trade. With hot prospects like Tyler Holt and Zach Walters, who each got a showcase in 2014, the Indians could actually field a stronger team if they simply released (or reduced his playing time significantly) Swisher than if they began the year with him on the roster. Since the Indians are in the business of making money as much as winning baseball games, however, this is not an option.

One thing to note when looking at the above contracts is that the Indians actually aren’t that bad off. At least they only owe about $30M to Swisher and Bourn with easy outs prior to 2017 (both need at least 550 plate appearances and to pass a physical for the options to automatically activate) unlike the Dodgers, who owe at least $225M to three outfielders over the next five years. Taking this into account and the fact that the Indians would prefer to cut payroll, the three Dodgers outfielders and Ryan Howard are likely out of the question. Similarly, other teams would likely be unwilling to trade a player with a smaller salary or larger on the field value for Swisher (Bourn could be different as he still has value to a team), so Ricky Nolasco, Edwin Jackson and Cody Ross could be out as well.

This brings us back to Ubaldo Jimenez and B.J. Upton, who have been the primary objects of trade rumors. To quickly eliminate one name, those who do not follow the National League should know that the Atlanta Upton is nothing similar to the Tampa Bay Upton of a few years earlier (and he shouldn’t be confused with his brother Justin either). Since signing his mega-deal with the Braves, Upton has batted .198/.279/.314 in 267 games and had an embarrassing .980 fielding percent in the outfield. In addition to being owed $16.35M more than Swisher over the next three years, he isn’t even a comparable hitter. In fact, there isn’t a single team in baseball who would consider Upton’s contract a good fit.

This brings things back to where we started, with the rumored Jimenez for Swisher trade that would bring the former Indian back to Cleveland. After being a Cy Young contender in 2010, Jimenez posted ERAs above five in each of his first two seasons in Cleveland before finally turning things around in 2013 with an amazing second half for a 3.30 full season ERA. Jimenez declined his qualifying offer of over $11M from the Indians, instead signing with Baltimore for the four year, $50M deal that they are currently trying to get rid of. With the O’s, Jimenez posted a line of 6-9 with a 4.81 ERA in 125.1 innings and was moved into the bullpen near the end of the season as the Orioles pushed for the AL East title, which they would eventually win. Set for another run in 2015 and with plenty of pitching available, the Orioles now find Jimenez expendable.

Jimenez G IP ERA FIP WHIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
2012 31 176.2 5.40 5.06 1.61 1.3 4.8 7.3
2013 32 182.2 3.30 3.43 1.33 0.8 3.9 9.6
1st Half 19 98.2 4.56 1.49 1.2 4.86 8.6
2nd Half 13 84 1.82 1.14 0.3 2.89 10.7
2014 25 125.1 4.81 4.67 1.52 1.0 5.5 8.3

The question here is whether or not Jimenez could return to his 2013 form with a return to Cleveland. He posted similar numbers in both 2012 and 2014 (as can be seen on the chart above) with really just 13 games in the second half breaking this trend that has lasted since 2011. What makes this a gamble (rather than a simple not interested from Chris Antonetti) is that Jimenez’s improvement may have stemmed from work with current Indians pitching coach, Mickey Callaway. During the past season, Callaway prompted dramatic improvements from Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco with others, like Trevor Bauer and Zach McAllister, showing positive signs late in the season. Bauer in particular is a great example because, like Jimenez, he has been notably hard to work with and has a difficult to repeat delivery.

If Callaway could fix Jimenez once, he may be able to do it again and even if he can’t, a pitcher who can throw 180 innings with an ERA under five would be a great option for a sixth starter or long reliever. While this may seem a waste of money, at least is wouldn’t be hurting the team as much as Swisher does. Simply removing him from the roster would open up a long line of possibilities including using Lonnie Chisenhall as a DH with Jose Ramirez at third and Francisco Lindor at short or using Zach Walters at DH. Any of these moves would be likely to improve the Indians both offensively and defensively, their two biggest weaknesses in 2014. When trading trash for trash, no deal is going to look ideal, but if Chris Antonetti is handed a way to get Swisher out of Cleveland, he needs to seriously think about accepting.

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