Your Morning Dump… Where advanced stats say Isaiah is already an all-star

JWCelebrateIll

XSTU7528.JPG

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big story line. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

When Thomas was on the court, Boston had a remarkable 109.2 offensive rating. When he was off the court? Their offensive rating dropped to 98.8. A player’s offensive rating is the number of points their team scores per 100 possessions when they’re on the floor. Thomas’ on-court offensive rating was by far the highest of any Celtic player. Putting those numbers into perspective, a 109.2 offensive rating would’ve ranked third in the NBA last season (behind only the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors). Meanwhile, a 98.8 offensive rating would’ve ranked 27th in the NBA (ahead of only the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Charlotte Hornets).

Offensive box plus/minus is another stat that shows Thomas’ effectiveness, as it tracks how a player fared offensively per 100 possessions relative to league average. With Boston, Thomas’ OBPM was 6.4. Only four players finished with a higher OBPM last season (Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and James Harden). Now Thomas’ Boston sample size is obviously smaller than those players, but his full-season OBPM of 4.6 still ranked eighth in the league.

Not to mention, Thomas was incredibly efficient last year. His player efficiency rating for the entire 2014-15 season was 20.6, ranking 32nd in the NBA and first among all reserves. He finished with a higher PER than some All-Stars, such as John Wall, Chris Bosh, Paul Millsap, Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant among others. Looking solely at his time in Boston, his PER was an even better 22.3. That would’ve ranked 15th in the NBA and fourth among all points guards (behind only Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry and Chris Paul).

Boston relied heavily on Thomas – and understandably so – as evidenced by his 32.1 usage percentage. Only four players were involved more than Thomas: Westbrook (38.4), Dwyane Wade (34.7), DeMarcus Cousins (34.1) and LeBron James (just barely at 32.3).

Put simply, Thomas was a tremendous deadline addition for the Celtics. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Thomas’ success was that he didn’t have any chemistry with his teammates or know head coach Brad Stevens’ system, so he was oftentimes just free-styling. Now that he’s comfortable with his teammates, coaches and plays, he expects to be even more productive in this upcoming season.

Basketball InsidersNBA PM: This is Isaiah Thomas’ Time to Shine

Old school fans like me don’t pay much attention to advanced statistics and analytics, but even a basketball dinosaur has to be impressed by the numbers in this article.

Just based on the eye test – what we see when we watch the games, not when we read the stats – the impact Isaiah Thomas has had on the Celtics is undeniable. As we all know, Boston was not expected to make the playoffs last season, but after Isaiah arrived, the Celts won 20 of their last 29 games (he missed a few with injury) and made the postseason with room to spare. Between his offensive production and his dynamic presence, Isaiah was the catalyst, and that is not debatable.

It’s amazing enough that Boston’s offensive rating rose more than 10 points when IT was on the floor. Then we see the individual players he was comparable to, and we can only conclude he is severely underrated on the league level.

Observers say the Celtics don’t have a superstar, but maybe they do and now he’s ready to emerge. If Isaiah produces for the full 82 like he did for one-third of last season, there will be no doubt.

Related: Worcester TelegramCeltics: Minutes matter for non-starter Isaiah Thomas

On Page 2: So you think you know who’s gonna play…

Stevens categorizes positions as ball-handlers, swings, wings, and bigs. The Celtics, while not exactly top heavy, are very deep. They’ve got plenty of ball-handlers and a more bigs than Brad Stevens probably knows what to do with. That includes newcomers David Lee and Amir Johnson, who will undoubtedly work their way into the rotation.

“We have to find the right combinations for our team, that’s the No. 1 thing,” Stevens said. “We have a lot of guys that are very capable, but just like anything else sometimes guys don’t fit great, sometimes guys do. The sooner that we can find it, the better. I’ve got thoughts in my mind on how certain guys will fit. We’ve got data on how certain guys would fit that have been here. But with a new team and a new season it’s good to see it all live early on. That goes into again when you’re making these pairings just some of what you want to see. The first three days of practice we have probably only changed a person here or there. We’ve just really focused on putting our system in on both ends.”

CSNNEStevens: Finding right combinations is top priority

There has been so much discussion and analysis of how the Celtics will fit 16 guaranteed contracts into 15 roster slots, and who exactly will be among the 10-man rotation that Stevens said he envisions. Well, guess what? No one knows. Based on this quote, Stevens doesn’t yet know. Yes, he probably has figured out likely scenarios, but then you see a tweet like this and you just know that all possibilities are in play.

Jones can shoot the three, which reinforces reports that Stevens wants to rely less on mid-range shooting. But the possibility of a 6’11” dude playing 2-guard? Really, whoever thinks they can predict the rotations and combos we’ll see this season – good luck.

Related: Celtics.comC’s Evaluate Rotations During Open Practice

And, finally: Good for Brooklyn Pierce, who has a great name

CBS BostonCeltics Make Young Fan’s Wish Come True

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

The Rest of the Links:

MassLiveBoston Celtics scrimmage analysis: Kelly Olynyk stands out, Amir Johnson solid as Green team secures 63-59 victory

GlobeCeltics display their progress in first scrimmage

ESPN BostonCamp chronicles: Pushing play on new season

Herald – Bulpett: David Lee soaks up Celtics tradition | Jones searches for way to fit in team’s open Garden scrimmage | Celtics notebook: Score one for Brad Stevens; Helping Isaiah Thomas is offense’s biggest need

CSNNE – Studs and duds: Don’t read too much into Celtics lineupsSmart: ‘Looking forward to having a big year’ | Avery Bradley: It’s time be a vocal leader | Lee enjoying time with young, energetic Celtics | Olynyk’s international summer has him ready to roll

NESNCeltics Notes: Kelly Olynyk, Terry Rozier Impress During ScrimmageBrad Stevens: Celtics’ Marcus Smart ‘Way Ahead Of The Curve’ Defensively

Sports IllustratedWith picks, players and potential, the Celtics are poised for … something

Arrow to top