Football Friday on a Thursday: Breaking the Dam

Hello Followers.  Hope you are doing great.

On Saturday, our Cougies will take on Gary Anderson’s version of the Oregon State Beavers—a group that has some Pac-12 talent but overall is struggling to find itself.  A couple of days ago, I watched this video of Oregon State Defensive Coordinator Kalani Sitake where he talked about the struggles of his defense and personnel to execute calls, line up properly, utilize proper technique, get their “eyes right” and so forth (sound familiar Coug fans?).

This sad assessment followed Gary Anderson’s presser on Monday where the head ball coach roundly criticized the Beavers for not fully buying in.  It also accompanied an assessment by the Beavers’ Offensive Coordinator that the OSU offense is not very good right now.

Of course, whenever a team gets systematically called out by a new coaching staff, the result is typically as follows:

• The team that gets called out usually comes out of the gate with its hair on fire.
• (But) Once said team faces two ounces of adversity, it typically lays down…

So, the name of the game is pretty simple here folks:  On offense,  the Cougs need to do their jobs, move the ball, and score a few touchdowns early. On defense, the Cougs need to do their jobs, and keep the stinking game in front of them (e.g., no explosive plays for touchdowns). Do that, and my sense is that we’ll see the Beaver dam break sometime during the midpoint of the third quarter (if not sooner).

The Four Keys To Winning

Before we get to the predictions for this week, let’s take a look at how I fared with last week’s keys:

Will Luke Falk Throw for Over 400 Yards?  I said YES and I was CORRECT!  Falk threw for just over 500.

Will WSU rush for over 100 Yards?  I said NO.  And boy was I wrong.   I mean, we got nearly 180 yards from the backs and nearly 300 in total offense from the trio of Wicks, Morrow, and Harrington.  I still can’t get over that performance!

WILL WSU Score Over 35 Points?  I said yes, but the answer was actually “NO.” Mind you, we don’t win without putting 45 on the board, but it’s important to remember that we needed that last minute drive to get to 31.

Will WSU be +1 or better in turnover margin?  I said yes and the answer was no. The big deal, of course, was that we wound up breaking even in the turnover margin when Luani made the pick that ended the game.

Anyhow, as I noted on Monday, what stands out to me at this point in the season is that our Cougies would be 5-0 right now if we had scored 35 points in regulation in each of our five games. So, while the rest of the season may hinge on the continued improvement of our defense (especially since the four opponents we face after OSU have explosive offenses), the most important key to game for us appears to be points scored.

Now to this week.

Will Luke Falk throw for more than 400 yards?  My answer is “yes.”  But not by much.  Let’s call it 410.

Will WSU rush for more than 100 yards?  My answer  is  “yes.”  I think we’ll get to about 125.

Will WSU score at least 35 points? See below.

Will WSU be +1 or better in turnover margin? My answer is “yes” I think we will be +2 (but I think they will come late).

Prediction

I don’t think that this is going to be an easy game.  Oregon State is playing for their season this Saturday (and we are too in so many ways).  Moreover, in addition to being called out by their coaches this week, the Beavs also have faced some pretty good football teams to date (i.e., Michigan, Stanford, and Arizona).  And when you think about the quality of the offensive fronts encountered by that Beaver defense, well, it’s safe to say that they probably aren’t going to be intimidated.

But ultimately, I think this is going to be one of those games where the Beavs just don’t have enough offense to keep up (much in the same way that we did not have enough offense to match them in 2013). So, my sense is that this is going to be a 21-14 type affair around the game’s mid-point that will get out of reach for OSU once the Cougs get up a couple of possessions.  Cougs go to 4-2 with a 35-21 game that sends the faithful home happy, but also concerned about whether we’re good enough to hang with the big boys.

Elsewhere in the Pac-12 and Nationally:

Stanford 37  UCLA 28.  I’m sure that Mora showed his team that ridiculous ASU touchdown run about 8,000 times during the bye-week. But that doesn’t mean that the Bruins have the physicality to stop McCaffrey and company.  Trees are looking like a SERIOUS contender for a national championship to me. Let’s just hope that they save that annual let down game for their match-up with us—and NOT UW next week.

Oregon 27 Washington 23.  Said it before and I’ll say it again. I LOVE WASHINGTON’S DEFENSE—especially against the pass. But I simply do not think that Browning and company are mature enough to score enough points to win these kinds of games—at least not yet (and lets hope that they don’t figure that out until next year).

Anyhow, this is a HUGE game for Washington because outside of Oregon State and maybe the Cougs, Washington doesn’t figure to be favored again if they lose this one. So, this is truly a must-win for both of these teams. Should be a GREAT fricking game.

USC 24 Notre Dame 23.  This one is the “who knows?” game of the week.  My guess is that the SC that we saw last week was an SC that was demoralized by having a sick coach.  Kessler’s body language seemed to show that from really the first few moments of the game.

So, it is going to be fascinating to see how the Trojans respond against a Notre Dame that should have beaten Clemson in South Carolina a few weeks back.  ND is really good and Southern Cal has the potential to be great.  This one is also must see TV.

Arizona State 31  Utah 17.  I know I’m in the minority on this, but after watching Utah play California and Michigan I am pretty convinced that Utah is going to get RUN before season’s end.  It could be the LA schools, it could be Stanford in the Pac-12 title game, but my sense is that it’s going to be the Sun Devils this weekend.  Simply put, at this point in the season, Todd Graham’s group isn’t turning over the rock 5 times. And if Goff had thrown only 3 interceptions last week instead of 12, the Utes would be a 1 loss outfit right now.  DAMN YOU TODD GRAHAM!

Michigan 20 Michigan State 17.   Michigan State has been hearing all week about how they’re going to get spanked by a Michigan team that they’ve dominated of late. And so, here’s to thinking that Connor Cook and company are going to come out early and punch Michigan squarely in the mouth.  But with Captain Comeback at the helm, I also think that Michigan will come up with a key touchdown late that will put them one step closer toward a possible berth in the College Football Playoff.

Texas A&M 35  Alabama 31.  At the start of the year, I looked at Bama’s schedule and circled Ole Miss and Texas A&M as the two possible losses.   And after watching the Tide last weekend in person, I saw just how vulnerable those corners might be in this match-up (their safeties, however, are absolute HAMMERS!).

Anyhow, the key to beating BAMA is to get ahead of them and make Coker beat you.  A&M has the formula and playmakers to do just that.  But if they don’t, I don’t think anyone will touch the Crimson Tide the rest of the way.

Enjoy this weekend’s games.

All for now.  Go Cougs!!!!!

(WIN THIS GAME!!!!!!!)