2016 Pittsburgh Pirates Projections – Jon Niese

The Pittsburgh Pirates will rely on Jon Niese to fill a huge hole in their rotation. What can the team expect from the veteran left-hander?

This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you, the readers, their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below those projections. The projections for Steamer and ZiPs (created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on fangraphs.com. Catch up on the rest of our projections HERE.

In the eyes of many fans, Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jon Niese carries the weight of the 2016 season on his shoulders.

Hey, that’s what happens when you were brought over for a hometown hero.

While that’s not entirely fair to Niese, it is fair to question what he can bring to a rotation in desperate need of stability after losing A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ this off-season.

Before we begin to answer that question, let’s look at the pitcher’s projections for 2016.

At first glance, these projections tell us very little in way of differentiation. Both Steamer and ZiPS do not seem to think that Niese can recapture his 2014 form. That year saw him post a 2.3 WAR with an ERA under 3.50, one of only two seasons in which he reached that milestone.

When we took a deep dive look at Niese earlier this month, we noted that Niese will likely lose his slider and change-up this upcoming season. Both of these pitches were far from effective last year, and when they were used in abundance the result was some truly bad game scores. Part of the Ray Searage effect will be to limit the exposure of these pitches. That alone may give Niese a realistic shot to return to his 2014 form.

Speaking of that 2014 form, the path to those numbers may be illuminated by something as small as a slight increase in swinging strike percentage. Niese had his lowest figure in this area for his career last year since becoming a regular starter. At just 5.8 percent, Niese could not make an honest attempt at fooling batters. In 2014, that figure came in at 7.2 percent. As a result of just a 1.4 percent increase, Niese saw 25 more strikeouts in just 11 more innings than he threw in 2015.

Niese will never be a swing-and-miss pitcher, but if he can find a way to make just a few more batters miss, he can easily maximize his strengths.

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