NL Central Focus: 4/19/16

After two weeks, the division standings have started to align with pre-season expectations, as the Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves looking up at the NL Central leading Chicago Cubs.

Here’s the standings after two weeks:

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been red hot getting balanced production from their lineup, despite several of their young stars beginning the season a little slowly.  If the Cubs weren’t surrounded by enough hype before, having a historic start to the season made sure it has reached epic proportions.  The fascination has provoked Kevin Costner to want to capitalize on the Cubs fandom and create a movie telling their story.  No details have been released about the movie, like how long it will take to detail 107 years of misery on the big screen.

Javier Baez suffered a left thumb contusion in spring training, and he began the season on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa.  That trip was diverted when the Cubs activated him from the disabled list.  Once the Cubs determine he is fully ready for game action, he will be the steady backup for the middle infield with Tommy La Stella getting time at second and third.  Baez becomes just one more weapon to a team that has no pressing need for any additional firepower.

Nick Vorholt with Rant Sports proposes a different approach.  He views the only Cubs weakness as its bullpen.  He proposes the Cubs should trade Baez for at least a pair of solid bullpen pieces.  The plan is short sighted in the sense that Joe Maddon and the Cubs are rather optimistic about the potential of Baez, plus moving him would leave the Cubs with essentially no infield depth for the time being outside of La Stella.  The Cubs bench is already a weak point and dealing a young middle infielder would do nothing to fix that.  If the Cubs have proved anything these past two offseasons, it’s that there is a new high roller willing to throw money at the name on the back in hopes it pays off for the name on the front.  If the most hyped team this decade has their dream season come crashing down, inattention to the bullpen will likely be one of the leading causes.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have rebounded nicely since being swept in the opening series, but last night, their struggles in the division continued, dropping the opening game of the series against the Cubs, 5-0.  One of the key factors to their recent success has been the contributions from unexpected sources.  Jeremy Hazelbaker had a great first week and a rough second one.  Next man up was Aledmys Diaz, and the latest hero for the Cardinals is Eric Fryer.  According to Elias Sports Bureau, Fryer is the first player to start the season 6-6 since Dontrelle Willis of the then Florida Marlins in 2004.

It’s a good thing for the Cards that players have been stepping up because one player who hasn’t been answering the call is Adam Wainwright.  Through three starts, the 34-year-old right-handed pitcher has two losses with no wins and an ERA of 8.27.  The slow start has started to concern some of the Red Birds fan base, but it’s not entirely out of the ordinary.  After missing 2011, Wainwright got off to a slow start in April of 2012 with a 7.32 ERA.  Of course, that season, he would go on to have the worst statistical year of his career.  Wainwright will definitely be a player to keep an eye on moving forward, but unlike some media outlets have reported, it’s too early to hit the panic button.

Yesterday, the Cardinals activated Ruben Tejada from the disabled list.  Greg Garcia was the victim of the 25 man limit to be optioned to Triple-A Memphis.  Garcia had been off to a great start with the big league club, slashing .600/.733/1.100 in his ten at bats this year.  Tejada comes in the unfortunate victim of an untimely injury.  After a left quadriceps injury suffered at the end of spring forced him to miss the start of the season, Tejada went from being the likely replacement until Jhonny Peralta completes his rehab from thumb surgery to the backup to Aledmys Diaz.  Mike Matheny, when speaking about Garcia, said, “I told him he did everything that we had asked and hoped that he would do. And he understands. That’s the point where he is in his career and the kind of team we have right now.”

 Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have been hit or miss these first two weeks.  Of course that’s what can be expected of a team that could lose nearly 100 games.  Pirates fans saw firsthand in the second series what that’s like.  In the first game, the Pirates could do no wrong.  In the last two games of the series, the Pirates could do nothing right, with the Reds doing no wrong.  The Reds will need everything to go their way to win this season, and possibly for years to come.  One thing that could stand in their way is the bullpen.  The bullpen has been overworked and ranks fourth in innings pitched with 45.1 innings, as of yesterday.  A bullpen is only overworked when a rotation falters, but when they’ve been in games, the Reds’ relievers have faltered.  That is unlikely to improve as the season continues.

One thing that could improve, albeit only by means of pitchers returning from injury, is the Reds rotation.  Yesterday, the Reds got some good news.  Anthony DeSclafani is making progress in his return from injury.  He threw a two-inning live batting practice session on Monday.  The only concern I have is that the Reds may be rushing him back.  He’s expected to make only two rehab starts before rejoining the major league rotation.  Homer Bailey will soon be following him to make three rehab starts.  The Reds certainly need the help, but it may be some time before DeSclafani and Bailey shake off the rust.

The Reds hope they can shake off their habit of hitting into double plays soon too.  The Reds rank near the top of the National League in the category, and they didn’t help their cause in the second week.  The three teams above them are the Braves, Brewers, and Pirates, with the Pirates having the most.  Although, the Reds rank in the bottom half of the NL in hits, average, and on-base percentage, whereas the Pirates lead all three categories across all of baseball and would by consequence hit into more double plays.

Milwaukee Brewers

Two weeks in, and the Brewers are on the ropes already.  The Brewers have yet to be swept, but that’s only a matter of time, as they’ve lost all but one series so far.  The offense has put up runs, even in losing efforts, and that could be the result of the new batting philosophy manager Craig Counsell has instituted.  Under Counsell, the Brewers are swinging significantly less.  The results can be seen in Domingo Santana and Scooter Gennett.  The most important difference is in the O-swing %, percentage of pitches being swung at outside of the zone, which has been nearly cut in half from last year.  Even traditional free swingers like Aaron Hill and Chris Carter are showing more patience at the plate, which shows the Brewers players have bought into the philosophy.  Despite the philosophy resulting in better results at the plate, the team is still striking out at a higher rate.

Striking out is exactly what the Brewers pitchers have been doing too, just not in the typical sense of the word for pitchers.  Taylor Jungmann has allowed 13 runs over 13 innings with an ERA of 9.00.  He was expected to take a big step forward in 2016 after an impressive debut with a 3.77 ERA in 2015.  Jungmann still has time to reverse the trend and bring his ERA down, but if this doesn’t prove to be a fluke start, it will not matter how many runs the Brewers offense scores.

The Brewers could survive Jungmann struggling.  They could simply plug him in at the back of the rotation during a rebuilding year and let his struggles work itself out, but staff ace Wily Peralta has also struggled early and putting him at the back of the rotation is not an option.  In his three starts, Peralta has been shelled.  He ranks dead last in ERA for pitchers who have thrown at least ten innings this season.  He’s allowing hard contact and walking more batters.  At just 26, it’s too soon to simply give up on him and the expectations, but his hype and position atop the Brewers rotation also makes him overvalued on the trade market still.

That’s a wrap for this week.  Check back next week for all the news surrounding the Pirates opponents around the NL Central.

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