The Pittsburgh Pirates had a disappointing 2016 season. As the off-season begins, it is time to grade out the club. Today we take a look at set-up man turned closer, Tony Watson
Entering the 2016 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates had one of the elite backends of the bullpens in baseball. They had Mark Melancon closing out games and of course, they had Tony Watson to set him up.
From 2012-2015, Tony Watson was one of the best left-handed relievers in all of Major League Baseball. He put up a sparkling 2.32 ERA from 2012-2015 and anytime Mark Melancon struggled, there were people calling for him to take over as the closer. Fans got their wish in 2016 when Melancon was traded to the Washington Nationals and Watson found himself pitching in the ninth inning.
Strike ’em out
Tony Watson had his struggles in 2016 but the one area of his game that remained constant was his ability to get strikeouts. He wasn’t as good as his peak 2014 season when had struck out a career high 81 batters but his 58 were right in line with his career rate and his Strikeouts/9 of 7.7 were actually an improvement from 2015.
Watson’s best strikeout pitch was his changeup as he struck out 25 batters with it and opposing hitters only slashed .136/.174/.273/.447 against it. In terms of the number of strikeouts, his sinker was equally as successful but way more hittable. He also threw the changeup 436 fewer times than his sinker but struck out the exact same number of batters. So while the total was the same for his sinker and changeup, the changeup was far and away a more consistent weapon for Watson in 2016.
Hit ’em high, hit ’em low
Tony Watson had a very strange season in 2016. There were plenty of numbers that increased for the lefty. His ERA and FIP were both much higher than in the previous three seasons. The total number of hits allowed remained mostly unchanged. Watson only allowed 52 base hits in 2016. That lead to a comparable Hits/9 of 6.9. Which is fairly in line with his career rate of 6.8.
Watson really didn’t allow a ton of extra hits compared to previous seasons. It definitely seemed like he allowed a lot more base runners and his WHIP of 1.064 confirms that but it certainly wasn’t because of allowing base hits. However, that brings us to his first major flaw of 2016…
Walks in the Park
One of the areas of Watson’s game that suffered the most this season was his walks. He allowed 20 walks in his 67.2 innings, which caused his BB/9 to jump from 2.0 in 2015 to 2.7 in 2016. That may not seem like a lot but in nearly five fewer innings, Watson allowed three more walks.
[irp posts=”10525″ name=”Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 Gradeouts – Josh Bell”]Watson’s sinker was the worst offender for his decrease in control. Over the last three seasons, Watson had a 5.6 walk rate on his sinker. He averaged just over 10 walks per year on the pitch from 2013-2015. In 2016, he allowed 17 walks on the pitch. For whatever reason, he wasn’t able to consistently find the strike zone on what used to be his most effective pitch.
Baseball is a game where even a slight increase can really change everything. Watson’s walk numbers aren’t the biggest increase but they lead to what became his biggest and most apparent flaw in 2016.
Too home run friendly
The most obvious weakness for Tony Watson in 2016 was the huge increase in home runs. From 2012-2015, he allowed 18 total home runs, an average of 4.5 home runs a season. In 2016 that number jumped all the way to 10. It was by far the biggest weakness for Watson this past season, and it cost the Pittsburgh Pirates on more than one occasion.
[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Fans got their wish in 2016 when Melancon was traded to the Washington Nationals[/perfectpullquote]The sinker should be a pitch used to keep the ball on the ground but he allowed eight home runs, eight doubles, and one triple on the pitch. Which explains why opposing hitters slugged .500 and had an OPS of .845 against the pitch. The pitch wasn’t just getting hit, it was getting hit hard. Entering this season, batters were only slugging .341 with an OPS of .644 against the sinker.
When you couple the walks with the huge increase in home runs, it’s no wonder Watson allowed career high in both runs (26) and earned runs. (23) It was a season that made Watson look far more human than he has in previous years.
Conclusion and Final Grade
Tony Watson never really seemed right this past season. He wasn’t as terrible as some think but he absolutely had many very glaring flaws. You’ll notice I didn’t bring up the blown saves until right now and that’s by design. I find saves to be a fairly overrated statistic. Yes, Watson had five blown saves this season but I did not really consider them when evaluating his past season of work. Watson had signs of trouble well before he took over as the closer. So to focus on the blown saves would have been a disservice to the analysis.
The home runs and the way people were hitting his sinker were far more troublesome for me. It leads me to believe that unless he changes something batters will continue to sit on his sinker and hit it with regularity in 2017. Obviously, plenty could change between now and Opening Day 2017. The closer’s role for the Pittsburgh Pirates should belong to Tony Watson in 2017 but I wouldn’t be shocked if his leash was a lot shorter.
Given his up and down season and rise in several key statistics, Watson has earned a C grade from me.
What Grade would you give Tony Watson?
Agree with the grade we gave Watson? Do you disagree? Be sure to cast your vote in our poll posted below!
[irp posts=”10557″ name=”Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 Gradeout – Tyler Glasnow”]In a surprise twist, we will have a gradeout today. It will be Tony Watson. How would you grade him for his 2016 performance?
— Jason Rollison (@jrollisonpgh) October 20, 2016
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