Pittsburgh Pirates Keep or Trade: Jordy Mercer

Last week in our “Keep or Trade” series, we looked at the Pittsburgh Pirates top two options for third base – Jung Ho Kang and David Freese.  This week we turn our attention to Jordy Mercer and the shortstop position.

As with past reviews, our goal is to ultimately answer the question “Should the Pittsburgh Pirates keep him or trade him?”

Passing of the Torch

Jordy Mercer was promoted to the big leagues in 2012 as part of a planned, multi-year transition at the shortstop position.  Clint Barmes, the Pirates everyday shortstop, dutifully groomed Mercer as his heir apparent before moving on to the San Diego Padres.  Mercer split time with Barmes in 2013, logging 333 at-bats, hitting for a .285 average and playing respectable defense.  Understandably, this level of offensive contribution from a shortstop caused a lot of Pirate fans to take notice.

Offensive Expectations

Unfortunately for Jordy, in the years since 2013 he has not lived up to that first season at the plate.  He has not had a batting average above .256 and his career slash line has fallen to .257/.313/.377.  He does have good splits versus left handed pitching, with a .311/.375/.480 and often bats leadoff against a lefty starter.  However, this just makes the obvious case that he is lackluster against righties, which he faces in over three-quarters of his plate appearances.  He tends to start slowly, heating up with the Summertime temperatures.  His career average in April is .236 and in July it jumps to .296 before falling back to .240 in August.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Unfortunately for Jordy, in the years since 2013 he has not lived up to that first season at the plate. [/perfectpullquote]

One theory is that Mercer gets fatigued as the baseball season winds its way into August and September.  He plays almost every inning of every game and sometimes he is noticeably slowed. The fatigue theory may also be at work at the individual game level as Mercer is a much better career hitter in the early innings of games versus the later innings. This data is imperfect because of the late inning dynamic of relief pitching versus starting pitching.  However, over the course of 1800+ at-bats, a clear pattern emerges.

Innings	At-Bats	Batting Average	On Base %	Slugging %	Home Runs
1-3	554	.276	.323	.422	16
4-6	616	.269	.330	.411	15
7-9	585	.217	.276	.294	4

Jordy Mercer career hitting performance by inning

It is common for MLB hitters to experience a drop off in batting performance in later innings, but a 50 point drop in average and a 100+ point free fall in slugging is very concerning.  Clint Hurdle should consider pinch hitting for Mercer in late innings, especially against RHP.

Mercer did not fare well against his National League peers in 2016.  He was 6th out of 10 qualified shortstops in BA and OBP and 9th out of 10 in slugging and home runs.

Stable Defense

Jordy Mercer was stable, if not spectacular, on defense in 2016.  His 9 errors were the 5th fewest of all qualified MLB shortstops.  Mercer was a former closer in college and has a cannon for an arm.  His problem is his limited range.  His Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) from FanGraphs is -8.4, which means he was 8.4 defensive runs below average by their measurements.  The interesting thing here is UZR is made up of three components: converting double plays, range of playmaking and not making errors.  Mercer’s scores in these three categories are -0.8, -10.5 and 2.8 respectively (there is some rounding).  Mercer is better than average at scooping up balls that he can get to and accurately throwing them to first, but he is one of the worst shortstops in the entire league at getting to those balls in the first place.  This is not a one-year phenomenon as Mercer has never scored above -2.3 in the UZR range category.

[perfectpullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Mercer is better than average at scooping up balls that he can get to and accurately throwing them to first, but he is one of the worst shortstops in the entire league at getting to those balls in the first place. [/perfectpullquote]

Intangibles and Injuries

Mercer has had only one major injury that caused him to miss more than a month of playing time.  Even then he came back from the injury ahead of schedule and no worse for wear.  Other than that, he has been remarkably durable, logging over 500 at-bats in two of his last three seasons.  Mercer doesn’t appear to be a clubhouse leader, but he is spoken of highly by his teammates.  He seems like a nice guy with a positive demeanor.  He doesn’t appear to be an especially calming presence to his defense like his predecessor Clint Barmes.  Perhaps that will come with more experience.

Other Options

Mercer will make $4.3M for the 2017 season and, barring a contract extension, will be eligible for free agency in 2019 at age 32.  It does feel like we already know a lot about what Jordy Mercer is capable of on the baseball diamond and there are other options that have done, or could do, better.

The two best trade targets in the Pirate’s price range are Jonathan Villar and Adeiny Hechavarria.  Villar is the speedy leadoff man for the Milwaukee Brewers.  He is under team control through 2020 and won’t even hit arbitration until 2018.  Villar slashed .285/.369/.457 and led the league with 62 stolen bases.  Villar’s defense is suspect and he has been known to suffer attitude problems, which is the only reason the Brewers would look to trade him.  The Pirates would have to feel comfortable that Villar could overcome this.  Hechavarria is a light-hitting shortstop from the Miami Marlins who will hoover up anything hit in his general direction.  Only Brandon Crawford of the San Francisco Giants had a higher National League UZR than Hechavarria over the last two years.    He is signed for one year at $4.35M.  Villar is the offensive option; Hechavarria the defensive option.

The free agent and trade market for shortstops is never as thrilling as corner infielders, but there are definite upgrades out there.  The best free agent still available is Erik Aybar who made $8.5M with the Detroit Tigers last season.  Aybar had a bit of a down year in 2016, but he posted a batting average above .270 in 8 out of 9 full seasons before that.  He doesn’t hit for a lot of power, but somewhat made up for it with 7 different seasons of at least 12 stolen bases.  Aybar’s defense is similar to Mercer’s, but Aybar would be a definite offensive upgrade.

Mercer also has pressure internally from Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker. As we all know, Tucker had shoulder surgery in 2015 and his performance at the plate hasn’t yet recovered.  Newman may be ready to play near the end of 2017.  He was a first round pick from the University of Arizona and slashed .257/.318/.350 in Low-A ball.  Of the two, Newman seems like the most likely player to eventually replace Mercer.

Conclusion: Upgrade Shortstop Position

If the Pirates want to be a better than average team, they need to work tirelessly to field better than average players at all the key positions.  The Bucs should be getting better offensive production or better defensive prowess from their shortstop for the $4.3M they are spending.  Right now they are getting less than average at both.

Mercer’s career slash line is significantly south of the 2016 National League average of .254/.322/.412.  His defense is at best middle-of-the-pack in the National League.  However, he is an experienced, durable player that will give his all for 500+ at-bats every season.  For this reason, there will be teams that desire his durability and stability.  Trading Mercer to one of these teams would allow (and require) the Pirates to sign another 140+ game starting shortstop for at least the 2017 season.  After that, Kevin Newman may be knocking on the door.

For these reasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates should look to upgrade the shortstop position either defensively or offensively.  Jordy Mercer then becomes a trade candidate.

Photo Credit – Daniel Decker Photography