How Much is Willie Snead Worth?

Willie Snead will become a restricted free agent in 2018 and questions about his future are starting to arise. When will he be extended? How much will he cost? How much is he worth?

For the Saints, the earlier they can resign Snead to an extension, the better.  With the departure of Cooks, it is not hard to envision Snead seeing an expanded role on offense. After consecutive productive seasons in 2015 and 2016, adding another solid season to his resume will certainly have him in line for a wage increase.  If he were to be extended before the 2017 season, the cost will likely be more manageable than waiting until next offseason. See Willie Snead’s 2015 and 2016 receiving stats below.

2015 Receiving Stats:
15 of 16 games played
101 Targets
984 yards receiving
14.3 yards per reception
3 Touchdowns
68.3 Catch Rate
2 fumbles – 0 lost

2016 Receiving Stats:
15 of 16 games played
104 Targets (44^th)
895 yards receiving
12.4 yards per reception
4 Touchdowns
69.2 Catch Rate
2 fumbles – 2 lost

Source: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SneaWi00.htm

With that said, what is Snead’s current market value? To determine this, I compared his production and salary to the top wide receivers signed during the 2017 free agency period [figure 1]. To summarize, Snead’s 4.8 receptions per game would have ranked 3^rd and his receiving yards per game would have ranked 7^th.  Additionally, being only 24 years old with two consecutive quality seasons under his belt, Snead’s value is higher than most would think.  Receivers from 2017 Free Agency that most similarly compare to Snead’s production, consistency and age include: Robert Woods, Kenny Stills, Adam Thielen, Alshon Jeffery, Terrelle Pryor and Terrance Williams.  Although Adam Thielen and Terrelle Pryor were slightly more productive than Snead in 2016, both players only possess that 1 year of solid productivity.  Robert Woods and Kenny Still are both 25 years old and were less productive than Snead in 2016 but offer arguably higher upside as perimeter receivers.  Alshon Jeffery has shown elite traits since coming into the league but has been inconsistent while dealing with injuries and is 3 years older than Snead.  Terrence Williams has been less productive and is older (27 years old) but has been somewhat consistent year to year and possesses the lowest annual salary of the players being compared.

[Figure 1] – Willie Snead’s age, salary and production compared to top wide receivers of 2017 free agency

Source: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/wide-receiver/type-veteran/signed-2017/

Terrence Williams’ annual salary of $4,250,000 is the likely floor for Snead’s annual salary.  Terrelle Pryor’s $6,000,000 guaranteed is the likely floor for guarantees and Robert Woods’ guaranteed percentage of 44.14% is the likely floor for guaranteed percentage.  Alshon Jeffery’s annual salary of $9,500,000 is the likely ceiling for Snead’s annual salary.  Kenny Still’s $16,950,000 guaranteed is the likely ceiling and Alshon Jeffery’s guaranteed percentage of 100.00% is the obvious ceiling.  See details below for clarification and overall contract estimation and prediction.

Willie Snead’s Projected Contract

Annual Salary Low: $4,250,000
Annual Salary High: $9,500,000
Annual Salary Mean: $6,560,250

Guaranteed Low: $6,000,000
Guaranteed High: $16,950,000
Guaranteed Mean: $10,141,000

Guaranteed Percentage Low: 44.14%
Guaranteed Percentage High: 100.00%
Guaranteed Percentage Mean: 67.43%
*guaranteed percentage mean is a bit unrealistic for current NFL contracts and was adjusted in prediction below

Contract Framework
Length: 3-5 years
Annual Salary: $6,000,000 – $8,000,000
Guaranteed: $10,000,000 – $13,000,000
Guaranteed Percentage: 55% – 65%

My Personal Prediction
Length: 3 years
Total: $23,000,000
Annual Salary: ~$7,670,000
Guaranteed: $13,000,000
Guaranteed Percentage: 56.5%
Explanation: Snead bets on himself and agrees to a shorter deal in order to reenter free agency while still in his prime.  In 2008, Colston signed a similar 3 year deal after 2 consecutive seasons of production.  Both players outperformed their draft position as Snead was an undrafted free agent and Colston a 7th round pick.  The average salary of this deal falls nicely between the likes of Kenny Stills ($8,000,000) and Robert Woods ($6,800,000) at ~$7,670,000.  Also, Snead’s $13,000,000 guaranteed is greater than Robert Woods’ guarantees ($10,000,000) but less than Kenny Stills’ guarantees ($16,950,000). Snead’s 56.52% guaranteed also falls between Robert Woods’ 44.12% and Kenny Stills’ 62.34% guaranteed.