The Rubberducks completed a very successful season last week when they lost in the Eastern League championship to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. While they didn’t ultimately take home the crown, they made great improvements over last season with a team that included plenty of new players to go with a significant amount of returning prospects. The Indians have already seen the results from one of the top performers in AA this year as Shane Bieber has been featured heavily in the MLB rotation and they will likely see much more next year as quite a few players excelled in what should be their final full season in the minors.
MVP
He began and ended the season on the disabled list, so there is definite worry about long term health, but Triston McKenzie remains the Indians top pitching prospect and had a season worthy of the title this year for the RubberDucks. Despite joining the team late, he made 16 starts and lead the rotation with a 2.68 ERA. His K/9 of 8.3 was down from previous seasons although from July 15th through the end of the season he struck out seven or more in a game five times while holding a 2.41 ERA, .199 average against and striking out 55 in 52.1 innings.
McKenzie is the highest quality pitcher I have personally witnessed in the minor leagues and has had the statistics to back that up at every level. If his injuries aren’t determined to be serious (early reports were that it is not an elbow problem, but general soreness) he should go straight to Columbus in 2019 and would be the best option for the MLB rotation next season should someone get hurt or one of the back-end players under-perform. Even without extenuating circumstances, he should join the Indians rotation by late 2019.
Future Stars
Possibly reaching the majors before McKenzie could be Bobby Bradley, who has already been promoted to Columbus, but spent most of the season in Akron. Bradley started off slowly, but from May 1st until his promotion on August 2nd, he hit .241/.331/.545 with 22 home runs and 16 doubles. Strike outs remain a problem, but Bradley has retained his title as the organization’s top power hitter. He should play in Columbus again in 2019, but is blocked in the majors by Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion, so it could take an injury to get Bradley with the Indians prior to 2020.
Since his first season in 2015 with Mahoning Valley, Connor Marabell has been an under the radar over performer, but that smoke screen should be dissipating. He lead the Ducks in slugging percent in 2018 while setting a career high with 13 home runs between AA and AAA. He also hit 31 doubles, a factor of his game that has remained consistent since he hit 45 in 2016. In addition to his offense, Marabell is a decent fielder with a great arm, best suited for right field. While he has played a few games in Columbus each of the last two seasons, he should have a more permanent role there next year and should be considered a major league bench option.
The highest projected position player on the RubberDucks was center fielder Andrew Calica and he had another great year, playing exclusively in Akron. He has moved up slowly, essentially playing one level per season (he played just ten games in Lake County in 2016) and each year he has improved each year. This year, he roped 21 doubles, swiped 27 bases and hit .278/.389/.375. He would benefit by decreasing his strike outs and increasing his walks, but that could be said about nearly every player in the system. He’s currently 24 and could be a major league talent, most likely as a bench player as early as 2019.
Under Appreciated
Akron used seven different second basemen this year due to a convergence of some of the best 2B’s in the system. Because of this, all but Mark Mathias were moved off position and Sam Haggerty and Tyler Krieger took to their new roles with the greatest zeal.
Krieger had never played a game away from second in his career, yet played 34 games in center field this year and didn’t commit an error. He also played 54 in left with just one misplay. At the same time, he had his best offensive season since 2016, batting .276/.332/.372 after a really rough season in Akron last year. He had nearly lost his prospect status after the 2017 season and his terrible appearance in the Arizona Fall League, but has now restored it while adding greater versatility as an infielder/outfielder.
Haggerty has always been a multi-position player, but played six different positions in 2018 between Akron and Columbus. Haggerty had a similar offensive season to 2017 in Lynchburg with a .243/.373/.396 batting line. His expectations skyrocketed after 43 extra base hits and 49 steals last year, but he missed some time this year, leading to less eye-popping numbers. He should be in Columbus next year and is yet another infielder with a potential MLB future.
Of course, the reason that the Ducks were so successful this year during the regular season was the pitching staff. Shao-Ching Chiang and Shane Beiber were promoted early in the season, but Aaron Civale and Jake Paulson stuck around.
Paulson was a pick up from the Reds during the last off-season and posted a 3.04 ERA over 115.1 innings with Akron this year. Neither he nor Civale had great strike out numbers, but they limited walks and hits well. At 23 years old, Civale likely has a greater future than the 26 year old Paulson although his K/9 of 6.6 was disappointing after reaching 7.7 last year. A command pitcher, Civale has frightening resemblance to Josh Tomlin with 12 home runs allowed and just 21 walks in 106.1 innings. While Chiang, Civale and obviously Bieber could have success in the Majors, it’s really only McKenzie who is expected to have ace level quality.
While the Indians MLB bullpen struggled all season as they scoured the waiver wire for relievers, the Ducks pen must have been screaming, “we’re right here.”
In particular, Mitch Brown had a 1.99 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and just one home run allowed during his 45.1 innings. He had a high walk rate, but the strike outs did more than enough to offset it. Following him was Kieran Lovegrove with a 3.46 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and fastball nearing 100 MPH. Finally, Argenis Angulo didn’t have the sparkling ERA, but had the best strike out and walk rate of all three. This doesn’t include Henry Martinez, who is likely the best of the group and was promoted to Columbus in early August after starting the season in Lynchburg. Based on their current status in the organization, Martinez and Angulo are the two most likely to feature in a future Indians bullpen.
Cause for Concern
The writing was on the wall when Nellie Rodriguez was demoted from AAA to AA for the promotion of Bradley. He becomes a minor league free agent at the end of the season and, while he did hit really well in Akron, has played so poorly in Columbus that he will likely be let go. Similarly, Joe Sever is also looking at free agency. His .262/.320/.375 line showed consistency with his career so far and he is very versatile playing 1B, 2B, 3B, LF and even some catcher in spring training. He is also 27, however, and has likely peaked.
Finishing off with the position players, Mathias was the only 2B to get to primarily keep his position, but he responded with a terrible offensive season. After an amazing rookie year in Mahoning Valley back in 2015, he has been constantly injured and has under-performed when not hurt. He is only 24 and could use a third season in Akron to see if the spark is still there, but he has been surpassed by Haggerty and Krieger just considering the second basemen in Akron.
While the bullpen was a great feature of Ducks this year, it wasn’t all daffodil daydream. Leandro Linares has long been considered one of the Indians best relief prospects, but his 6.1 K/9 in AA seems to be continuing a trend that I saw in the AFL last year. He finished the year on the DL and may have to play his third season in Akron next year at the age of 25.
Finally, in a non-baseball matter, Sicnarf Loopstok was suspended by the team early in July for a non-disclosed reason. This was not a league suspension, so it is not likely to be due to drug use, performance enhancing or otherwise. Since he was never reactivated over the last three months of the season, one would have to assume his time with the team is at an end.
Most Power: Bobby Bradley
Best Bat: Connor Marabell
Best Wheels: Andrew Calica
Best Glove: Mark Mathias (2B)
Best Arm: Connor Marabell (RF)
Worst Glove: Ka’ai Tom (OF)
Best Control: Aaron Civale
Best Stuff: Triston McKenzie
Most Likely to be an MLB Pitcher: Triston McKenzie
Most Likely to be an MLB Hitter: Bobby Bradley
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