Name: Justin Willis
Opponent: Mark Hunt
Odds: +113 (bet $100 to win $113)
It’s hard to look at what is likely Mark Hunt’s last fight – and almost definitely his last fight in the UFC – and pick against him. Especially when it’s at home. However, this is why I think the odds are skewed in his favor.
Justin Willis has a lot of the same attributes as Hunt. Both are particularly powerful strikers although Hunt is quite a bit more technical. Neither are cardio machines, but both can carry themselves through a three round fight just fine.
The difference here is the number of paths to victory that Willis has. Either could probably knock the other out if landing the right shot, but only Willis has the ability to make this a grinder. Hunt has notably bad takedown defense and Willis has been successful with 67% of his takedowns. This includes one against Chase Sherman who defends takedowns at a 77% clip.
In order for Mark Hunt to win this fight, he’s going to have to fight off a number of takedowns from a superior grappler, and I just don’t know when the last time he did that was.
(editor’s note – since this article was written Willis has flipped to the betting favorite)
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): $810
Return on Investment: 25%