Philadelphia Phillies (-8)
The Phillies just paid Aaron Nola, but there are a fair number of question marks beyond the 2018 National League Cy Young finalist. Jake Arrieta is the most proven pitcher and the grizzled veteran of the bunch, but he’s been in decline since his own Cy Young campaign in 2015. His ERA, strikeout rate, and fWAR have gotten worse with each passing season.
Among the group at the back of the rotation, Nick Pivetta will be an intriguing arm to follow because of the leap he took this past year. Although the last four months of his season didn’t come close to matching the first two, his impact grew quite a bit when compared to his rookie year. A 4.77 ERA and 2.8 fWAR aren’t necessarily things to write home about, but they were a lot better than what he did in 2017 (6.02 ERA, 1.0 fWAR).
The young right-hander also made significant improvements in his strikeout rate (24.0% to 27.1%), swinging-strike rate (8.7% to 12.0%), and walk rate 9.8% to 7.4%).