With Week 5 already underway, we now preview 5 smart bets for Sunday.
In last week’s “5 Games To Bet On” thread, we went 5-0. I hope those that read it, took my advice and bet the spread on those games.
This week, we are presented with many “safe” bets. While this thread will mainly provide safe bets with a couple risky one’s sprinkled in, what we want to focus on is the matchups that best suit the spread of the game.
As we enter the second quarter of the year, we have a solid idea of what each team represents. For example, the Dallas Cowboys start off each game slow, throwing turnovers, only for Dak to throw for 400 yards in completing a near comeback loss.
Here are my 5 smart bets for Week 5 of the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6)
This is an enticing game for many reasons. One, the Texans just fired their head coach this week and new head coaches in their first game are historically bad against the spread. Second, the Texans biggest weakness defensively is the Jaguars strength offensively. Rookie HB James Robinson has been a crucial part of this offense and I expect a big day from him Sunday.
The Texans have significantly declined as a team. Obviously, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins reshaped the way the offense would function, but the defense has been poor this year as well. Minshew and Chark are not as bad as everyone makes them out. The Jaguars offense can be explosive and I like them to outright win this game.
While I do like Watson and his future in this league, I see the Texans still being winless after Week 5.
JLuppy’s Pick: Jaguars (+6)
Arizona Cardinals (-7) @ New York jets
From here on out, expect the New York Jets to be in this thread. This team is a complete mess. This could very well be the last game for Adam Gase as Jets head coach. While there is some uncertainty surrounding this game as a Jets player has received a positive COVID-19 test, for the time being, the game is still occurring on Sunday.
If this game does happen, the Jets are going to be without QB Sam Darnold. It was announced earlier in the week that backup QB Joe Flacco, would be the starting quarterback against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are coming off back to back bad losses and have a “pick me up” game right for the taking. Expect a big day from both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
This one will be ugly. I got the Cardinals winning be at least 14.
JLuppy’s Pick: Cardinals (-7)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
As mentioned, every once in a while I throw in a risky bet. This matchup is tough for the Bengals for many different reasons. Joe Burrow is finding out that NFL life is rough with the amount of times he’s been pressured and hit. He has been sacked 15 times throughout the first quarter of the season. That is nearly 4 sacks per game. The Ravens are entering this game with 9 sacks on the total year.
Although I expect that to increase during this game, I also see this one being closer than many are assuming. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missed two days of practice with a knee/illness injury. The Ravens offensively have looked different this year. While they still rely on the run, more teams are making Jackson beat them with his arm. The key to that is to get Baltimore to play from behind.
I do not think the Bengals will win this one, but I am taking the points as I anticipate a close game.
JLuppy’s Pick: Bengals (+13.5)
indianpolis colts (-2) @ cleveland browns
The Cleveland Browns are now 3-1 for the first time since 2001. They are coming off a big win over the Cowboys in which they rushed for over 300 yards and star wideout, Odell Beckham Jr., had his best game as a Brown. But, this week spells disaster for Baker Mayfield and the Browns. In the win over the Cowboys in which they put up 49 points, Mayfield only threw for 169 yards. He has yet to show the team he can carry them to a victory with his arm and in this game, he will once again get exposed.
Believe it or not, the Colts have the best defense in the NFL. They are excellent against the run, excellent against the pass and currently have the number 1 scoring defense. The Colts also have one of the best offensive lines in this league. They will be able to put up points on the Browns weak secondary while locking down them on the other end.
With no Nick Chubb, I got the Browns being welcomed back to reality this Sunday. I got the Colts winning by at least one touchdown.
JLuppy’s Pick: Colts (-2)
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Many aren’t crazy about betting on this game as the Vikings roster is way better than what their record shows. But, I like Seattle in this matchup for multiple reasons. The Vikings best strength on offense is the Seahawks best strength on defense. HB Dalvin Cook is the best running back in the league statistically. The Seahawks have the third best rushing defense led by Bobby Wagner. Kirk Cousins will need to out duel Russell Wilson in this one, and I do not see that happening.
Russell Wilson is undefeated in his career versus the Minnesota Vikings. He is also ridiculously good on primetime at home. The Vikings backend has worsened and they will have the tall task of stopping this explosive Seattle offense. Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will have favorable matchups throughout the game and I expect DK to receive for over 100 yards once again.
Under the lights on Sunday Night Football, I like the Seahawks to win by at least 10.
JLuppy’s Pick: Seahawks (-7)
JLUppy’s record: 5-0