With Week 6 on the helm, we do a deep dive into the 5 best NFL games to bet on this weekend
Week 5 didn’t go as planned for my picks. Coming off a perfect 5-0 record in Week 4, I threw in a couple risky bets that backfired. But, if there is anything we can learn from the gambling industry, specifically when it comes to betting on NFL games, is that “there is always next week.” Well, now next week is presenting itself to us with a great slate of games this weekend.
It seems that COVID-19 will not be causing any delays in games this weekend and so, we can base our bets off what is currently expected.
As we approach Week 6, we have a pretty solid feel for each team as they are slowly taking form. Although the NFL is a week to week league, we start to develop an idea of how each team is going to perform. Or, to put it in another way, we have created expectations for each team through the first five weeks. 5 games is a solid sample size to begin building judgements.
Now, let’s get to what all of you are here for: the 5 bets of the weekend.
washington football team @ New York giants (-2.5)
I know, you see these two teams and you want to turn off the computer screen. But, just hear me out. Last week against the Cowboys, the Giants posted 34 points, their season high. They are averaging the second lowest points per game total in 16.2, only in front of the Jets. The Washington Football Team rank third worse only posting about 17 points per game. When you compare these two offenses, the Giants clearly have the better one.
Freeman has shown enough to solidify the starting position and Daniel Jones has not thrown a touchdown since Week 1. I know many see that as a concern; I see this as a breakout game for him. The Football Team are physical on the defensive side of the ball, but the Giants have been playing extremely hard for their head coach. Nearly all of their games have been close except the Week 3 loss to the 49ers.
The Washington defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game. While they still have many questions on the offensive side of the ball, such as who is going to start at QB? The Giants are bound for a win and I feel this week is the week. Jones is undefeated against Washington in his career and I see that streak extending into this weekend.
JLuppy’s Pick: New York Giants (-2.5)
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Last week I bet against the Browns and I was wrong. I trusted the Colts defense to force enough turnovers to win the game and again, I was wrong. This week, I am trusting Mike Tomlin and the Steelers to win this game by at least 7. The Steelers are another top defense and the Browns are going to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. Especially, if Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t available on Sunday.
Browns’ HC Kevin Stefanski said WR Odell Beckham Jr. was sent home today with an illness.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 15, 2020
The Steelers are tied for 1st in the NFL for most sacks (20). Although the Browns offensive line has been solid this year, I see T.J. Watt — early defensive player of the year candidate — having a big game. The Steelers have the second best rushing defense, allowing only 64 yards per game on the ground. The Browns biggest strength offensively is running the ball. Baker has yet to show he is capable of carrying the team with his arm.
Also, keep in mind, this Steelers offense is no joke. Rookie Chase Claypool is coming off a 4 touchdown game. They like to spread the ball around and they have always done a fantastic job of drafting wideouts.
JLuppy’s Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3)
This is going to be a better game than what most expect. But, I do see the Titans improving to 5-0 defeating the Houston Texans by at least one touchdown. The Texans got their first win over the year against the Jaguars and now have hope that they can salvage their season. Unfortunately for them, they will be going up against a red hot team that just destroyed the Bills.
Not many were expecting that as the Titans only had 2 practices in the last two weeks due to the positive COVID tests within their origination. While Deshaun Watson is a winner and shows up in the biggest moments, the Texans biggest weakness is the Titans greatest strength. The Houston Texans currently have the 2nd worse rushing defense in the league, allowing 160.4 yards per game on the ground. Also, keep in mind that the Texans have not won the time of possession battle in any of their first 5 games.
All of that is spelling disaster for the Texans. Derrick Henry and this Tennessee offense will be too much to handle for this weak Texans defensive front.
JLuppy’s Pick: Tennessee Titans (-3)
New York jets @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
In my picks last week, the only game I won was the Cardinals v. Jets game. Sorry Jet fans, but this team will remain in my 5 games thread until they prove me wrong. Sam Darnold’s health is still up in the air as he is dealing with a shoulder injury. The Jets offense is pathetic and to make matters worse, they just cut ties with their best offensive player.
Jets released Le’Veon Bell.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 14, 2020
The Jets cannot move the ball up and down the field and their defense can not stop anybody. I know this Dolphins team doesn’t high have expectations on the season, but they are coming off a huge upset defeating the San Francisco 49ers, 43-17, in Week 5. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can get off to a good start and establish his rhythm, it will be another long Sunday for Jet fans.
I think Fitz will have another big game as he going up against a Jets defense that ranks in bottom tier of passing defense, currently allowing 265.6 yards per game through the air.
JLuppy’s Pick: Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) @ dallas cowboys
The second half of the double header on Monday Night Football will feature the 3-2 Arizona Cardinals versus the 2-3 Dallas Cowboys. In last week’s game against the New York Giants, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott suffered a season ending ankle injury. But, have no fear, the red rocket is here. Andy Dalton came into the game, led them to a game tying drive and then eventually, led the game winning drive.
Both offenses have lots of fire power. DeAndre Hopkins has been dominant on the year and he is more likely than not to have another big as the Cowboys have the worst secondary in the NFL. The Cowboys have the worst scoring defense in the league, currently allowing 36.0 points per game. But, I do see them winning this game. The Cardinals suffered a huge season ending injury in their win over the Jets.
Cardinals LB Chandler Jones (biceps) to miss rest of season. pic.twitter.com/9Tu4DPhEwG
— NFL (@NFL) October 14, 2020
I think Zeke will have another big game and the Dallas defense will be able to force two turnovers on primetime. Expect big games from both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.
JLuppy’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)