Tua Tagovailoa – Is the quarterback the biggest gamble in the history of the NFL?

Tua Tagovailoa – Is the quarterback the biggest gamble in the history of the NFL?


Tua Tagovailoa – Is the quarterback the biggest gamble in the history of the NFL?


Tua Tagaviloa, the quarterback of Alabama, is one of the most intriguing NFL players of the 2020 Draft.

He is a talented player with excellent performance as a passer. Still, he can also quickly escape the pocket and pick up yards in the open field. Tua Tagovailoa has lost only two games as a starter for the past three seasons.

Despite being one of the best players in the NFL, Tagovailoa couldn’t finish the 2019 campaign because of a hip injury. Throughout his Alabama career, Tua suffered from various injuries, including quad, knee, and finger fractures, to name a few. 

His injury record has become concerning for NFL coaches and officials, who recommend a close evaluation before drafting Tagovailoa, especially in the top 10. After all, using a high first-round draft on a quarterback who can’t achieve his full potential because of health issues might be a risky decision that could hinder a franchise’s progress for years to come.

Jan 3, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) runs with the ball as Buffalo Bills defensive end A.J. Epenesa (57) defends during the third quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Coach Rex Ryan opinion on Tua Tagaviloa

In a recent episode of “Get Up!”, former NFL coach Rex Ryan declared that he considers Tua Tagovailoa“ the biggest gamble in the NFL draft history. The reason he said that is because despite having all the qualities of a fantastic prospect, his injuries are concerning, especially since he’s had five surgeries since his career took off.

While coach Rex Ryan is not dismissing Tagovailoa as a top-tier prospect, he is surprised that draft analysts are not considering that availability to play is one of the main qualities that NFL teams should look for when drafting prospects. Indeed, if a player can’t stay on the field, his value drops significantly in the eyes of many NFL professionals.

In his interview for “Get Up!”, Ryan informed the audience that Tagovailoa has been through more surgeries that have been previously reported by the media from what he’s heard. Even though some NFL fans might disagree with coach Rex Ryan, the truth is that he has a lot of connections, so his information should be accurate. His opinion is that if you only get one first-round pick, it would be wiser to pass on Tagovailoa in the upcoming draft, making Miami the ideal fit for the quarterback.

“Boy, I’ll tell you that – if I only had one first-round pick, I would consider it too risky. I also think that if I had multiple picks like the Miami Dolphins do, I would probably take the gamble”, said coach Ryan. Curiously, he didn’t indicate which picks he predicts the Dolphins to draft Tua in the upcoming season.

Tagovailoa’s injuries report

Jan 3, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) passes the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

In an interview for Yahoo Sports, Chris Cabott, the firm’s owner representing Tagovailoa, said that Tua has been fully cleared. This means that is ready to compete at maximum performance. However, the quarterback had a dislocated hip surgery in November and suffered from a posterior wall fracture in a game against Mississippi.

The posterior wall fracture kept Tagovailoa on the bench for the last three games of Alabama. On top of that, he missed the team’s win against Arkansas on October 26th, after he had a high ankle sprain surgery.

Despite the apparent durability concerns, the Hawaiian quarterback is still one of the top 5 favorites this season. Matt Miller’s mock draft also predicts that Tagovailoa would be the 5th pick of the Miami Dolphins. That’s because when he is not injured, Tua has an exceptional performance, throwing for 2840 yards and scoring 33 touchdowns, with a 71% completion rate in nine games in the last season.

Predictions for the upcoming draft

According to a recent announcement, four quarterbacks are likely to be selected for the first round of the 2020 draft. The first player could be Joe Burrow, who had an undefeated season playing for LSU and received the prestigious Heisman Trophy. Indeed, after analyzing his stats for 2019, it’s safe to say that Burrow had the most outstanding season in the history of college football. With this being said, it would be surprising if the Cincinnati Bengals pass on him with the number 1 overall pick.

The following quarterback off the board could be Tagovailoa. Both the Miami Dolphins (pick number 5) and the Los Angeles Chargers (pick number 6) need to draft a franchise quarterback. After Tagovalia, the next favorites are Justin Herbert from Oregon and Jordan Love from Utah. They are very likely to be drafted in Round 1. Based on the analysis, Jordan Love is expected to be a top 10 pick.

Judging by the recent NFL announcements, the upcoming season will be a blast, and a lot of unexpected decisions will be made. Nobody knows yet what the draft will look like exactly, but specialists have made some mocks that could be used as a reference. Still, we will have to wait until the draft is over to see if Tagovailoa will be the first pick or if a new player will take his place as the top-rated quarterback!

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Analysis tools used by gambling professionals

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The bottom line

While both NFL fans and experts agree that Tua Tagovailoa is the best quarterback in the draft, he’s also a risky pick due to his injury history. Even though some fans might be disappointed, we know that the upcoming NFL season will be even more thrilling, and we expect to see some unexpected results!

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