Name: Alex Munoz
Opponent: Luis Pena
Odds: +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
This one can really be oversimplified by the paths to victory model. Yes, Pena is undoubtedly better on the feet and likely has better submissions skills. No, I don’t think that either will matter in the slightest.
Munoz has a clear path to victory via his wrestling. While his percentages in the UFC/Contender Series may not look great (a mere 45%) he did face Nasrat Haqparast on short notice for one of those fights. Even so, he managed to take down the UFC veteran once. Pena’s takedown defense has not been particularly good in the UFC. Not only did guys like Matt Frevola rack up takedowns on him, but so did guys like Steven Peterson and Steve Garcia, who aren’t really wrestler types.
I imagine this fight will come down to whether or not Pena can get back up and look good enough in the standing to win a decision. I’m willing to look at that plus number to say it won’t be enough.
2021 Record: 3-8 (1 withdrawal)
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): -($230)
Return on Investment: -19%
2018-20 Record: 45-72 (+1.1%)
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