The Livest Dog at UFC Vegas 38: Misha Cirkunov

The Livest Dog at UFC Vegas 38: Misha Cirkunov

MMA Manifesto

The Livest Dog at UFC Vegas 38: Misha Cirkunov


Name: Misha Cirkunov

Opponent: Krzysztof Jotko

Odds: +124 (bet $100 to win $124) **Odds by FanDuel

Misha Cirkunov is understandably an underdog here. He’s lost 4 of his last 6 fights and was KOed in all of them. There’s a good reason that the bookmakers wouldn’t be installing him as a favorite. However, I think the overlooked part here is both strength of schedule and style.

For the strength of schedule, Cirkunov has faced a crazy list of opponents. Glover Teixeira, Ryan Spann, Johnny Walker – the list goes on. Jotko on the other hand has fought Sean Stickland and Brad Tavares, but that barely seems comparable to what Cirkunov has done.

In addition, I think the style favors Misha here. He is coming down to 185lbs, where I expect him to be an imposing figure. He also has never lost to someone who couldn’t put him away with hands. That’s because he just keeps coming and has insane sub skills even late in the fight. Jotko hasn’t finished anyone since Tamdan McCrory back in 2016. Imagining him keeping his feet for 15 minutes and surviving everything Cirkunov throws his way just doesn’t seem likely.

2021 Record: 10-18 (4 withdrawals)
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): -($292)
Return on Investment: -8%

2018-20 Record: 45-72 (+1.1%)

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