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The Livest Dog at UFC 269: Raulian Paiva

The Livest Dog at UFC 269: Raulian Paiva
The Livest Dog at UFC 269: Raulian Paiva

July 12, 2020; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Raulian Paiva of Brazil punches Zhalgas Zhumagulov of Kazakhstan in their flyweight fight during the UFC 251 event at Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 12, 2020 on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via USA TODAY Sports

Name: Raulian Paiva

Opponent: Sean O’Malley

Odds: +260 (bet $100 to win $260) **Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

Sean O’Malley has officially transcended into those names that are virtually unplayable in the MMA world because his number is so often inflated by his status. In addition, his last performance, against a short notice fighter in Kris Moutinho, drew all sorts of praise and likely inflated the line even further.

Just because the line is all jacked up isn’t a reason to play the other side. However, the skills of Paiva are. Firstly, he has some very quick striking that was able to go toe-to-toe with O’Malley teammate and training partner Kyler Phillips. He proved to be incredibly durable in that fight and got better as the fight went on. Plus, he showed that he has a viable path to victory with the grappling. We have long noted that O’Malley is far weaker on the ground than he is on the feet.

I think Paiva has enough takedowns in him to steal some rounds, and enough striking to hang in there for a decision.


2021 Record: 14-23 (4 withdrawals)
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): $6 
Return on Investment: 0.1%

2018-20 Record: 45-72 (+1.1%)

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