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3 Best NFL Player Props and Betting Picks for Patriots vs Bills Wild Card Weekend

nfl player props betting patriots vs bills prediction

The second game on the NFL Wild Card Weekend schedule is a highly-anticipated third encounter between two AFC East Division rivals. After splitting the two regular-season meetings, New England Patriots against the Buffalo Bills sets up as a grudge match. This time, the stakes are heightened as a spot in the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs is on the line. The two regular-season meetings between the teams were very different in nature. That being said, bettors can use the film and stats from the two previous matchups to their benefit when making NFL player props and betting picks on the game. 

The following outlines three of the best NFL betting player props for Saturday night’s Patriots vs. Bills AFC Wild Card playoff matchup. While there are many online sportsbooks to choose from to place NFL player props, the following odds are taken from BetOnline Sportsbook

Bills vs Patriots NFL Player Props and Betting Picks

NFL betting odds taken from BetOnline Sportsbook

Jakobi Meyers Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Even going back to last season with Cam Newton under center, Jakobi Meyers has had a knack for being busy each time the Patriots play against Buffalo. While he was not targeted in the first regular-season matchup between the teams this year, keep in mind that quarterback Mac Jones only attempted four total passes in that game. He saw no fewer than eight targets in each of the final four games to close the regular season. A similar target share on Saturday bodes well for his chances to clear the NFL player props total of 46.5 yards receiving.

It is worth noting that throwing the ball on the Buffalo defense is not easy. Jones certainly struggled to manage the variety of looks thrown at him in the second meeting. For as sloppy as the quarterback play was in that game, Meyers still managed to haul in six of eight targets for 59 yards. His role in the passing game as a safe target on short and intermediate routes figures to ensure he is involved on Saturday night.

Josh Allen Under 22.5 Completions (-122)

Bills quarterback Josh Allen split the difference on the NFL player props completion total of 22.5 in the two regular-season games against the Patriots. After being held to just 15 completed passes in the first game, Allen had 30 in the rematch. Of course, the second game in Foxborough featured substantially better weather conditions than the Monday night affair in Orchard Park. Well, both frigid temperatures and at least mild winds are once again in the forecast for Western New York ahead of Saturday’s Wild Card showdown. It could prove to be extremely difficult to pile up completions and passing stats in the winter conditions.

In addition to the weather forecast, the Patriots’ pass defense isn’t exactly easy to pick apart. New England ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency against the pass this season. Allen was wildly inaccurate and made several poor decisions down the stretch of the season. One has to believe that Bill Belichick and a healthy Pats secondary will have some exotic looks planned for the young quarterback in Saturday’s playoff game. We’ll look to fade Allen’s completions total and go under his NFL betting prop of 22.5.

Dawson Knox Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Former Ole Miss tight end Dawson Knox had by far his best NFL season this year. However, he was held in check in both of the Bills’ previous games against New England. Knox may have caught a touchdown pass in the first encounter, but he had just 14 receiving yards in that game. Despite Allen and the offense being much more effective in the rematch, Knox was once again quiet with 11 yards on two receptions. 

In reality, pretty much every opposing tight end the Patriots have faced this season wound up struggling. New England allowed only 443 receiving yards to the position all season. Not only was that mark the best in the NFL, but it was 139 yards fewer than the next best team! Throw in potentially nasty weather conditions for Saturday’s AFC Wild Card Game and playing under the NFL player props line of 32.5 receiving yards for Knox is certainly justified.

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